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Mark Steyn: Exit (Poll) Strategy
So remember: In about 15 hours or so the rumors and leaks are going to start Its an Obama landslide! Exit polls show him winning North Carolina by 15 points! In Vermont, McCain will be the first major party candidate not to break into double digits
Its all rubbish. Exit polls skew Dem. In 2004, they overstated Kerrys support by 5.5 points. Which doesnt sound a lot. But, given that there were only ten states where the margin of victory was less than 5%, that was enough to make Kerry briefly appear the winner. The point of all the afternoon leakage is to depress turnout in the Florida panhandle and points west. Dont fall for it. The media have been hailing the inevitability of Obama ever since Iowa. To their credit, Democrat primary voters paid no heed. The more Chris Matthews and the rest of the gang insisted it was over, the more obstinately Hillary Dems turned up to vote for her. Captain Landslide wound up being dragged by the media across the finish line in slow motion. If the Democrat base declined to take its marching orders from Tingle-Me Elmo back in the spring, theres no reason for Republicans to do so six months later. If this is to be a losing year, so be it. Its still better to lose 51-49 than 59-41. Thisll be a weird day, and history will be made however it turns out: first black president, first female veep, oldest president, most hair-plugged veep. That's excitement enough, without falling for exit poll rumors that will almost certainly prove false. Posted by: Mike 2008-11-04 |
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