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Analysis: Is Syria changing?
Changes are slowly happening in Syria. A group of about 700 Syrian intellectual -- writers and lawyers -- is calling on the government of President Bashar Assad to implement political reform. This is a rare event in a country where dissident voices tend to remain unheard and out of the spotlight. But a report issued Wednesday urges the government to lift the state of emergency, which its signatories say is leading to "paralysis within Syrian society." The report -- the first of its kind in Syria -- will be presented to the government next month, on the anniversary of the Syrian Baath partyâs rise to power. The Syrian Organization of Human Rights also urges the government to exert more control over prisons and the treatment of prisoners, which the report says are at times subjected to torture, beatings and other human rights abuses. The report cites former prisoners by name and describes some of the maltreatment to which they were subjected. This unexpected development comes on the heels of recent peace overtures made by the Syrian president towards Israel. Indeed, change may be slowly creeping into Syria since Bashar took over the mantle of leadership following the death of his father, Hafez, in June 2000. Last month Bashar ordered the release of more than 100 political prisoners and freed more than 700 others. While these steps might not appear as much to those unfamiliar with the pace at which progress inches along in the Middle East, it is, nevertheless, seen as an important improvement by analysts more familiar with developments in the area. They cite the case of Kuwait as an example. "After the Iraqi army was driven from Kuwait in 1991, its monarch promised women rights. Consequently, in May 1999 -- the time gap tells something about the pace of change in the region -- he issued a decree giving women the right to vote and run for office in the next Kuwaiti elections," says Barry Rubin, director of Global Research in International Affairs and editor of the Middle East Review of International Affairs Journal. After four major wars in five decades, Syria, it appears, is now trying to move forward through peaceful means in its stagnating quarrel with Israel. "We are not going to war anymore," said Imad Mustapha, Syriaâs top envoy to Washington at a recent meeting held at the Middle East Institute. "We want to regain the Golan through negotiations," he said in reference to the Israeli-occupied heights. The reasons behind the sudden change of policies -- both foreign and domestic -- could be partially explained by a number of developments in the area, not least of which is the presence of several tens of thousands of U.S. troops encamped in neighboring Iraq. That is a fact made all the more real by repeated warnings of regime changes hurled at Syria by neo-conservatives in the Bush administration. They would like to see a repeat performance of the Baghdad scenario played out in Damascus, at least as far as removing the Baath Party from power goes. They call it "de-Baathification." The passing of the Syria Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Act by Congress late last year gives Washington the possibility of applying further political and economic pressures on Damascus. Another reason could simply be that Assad realizes he has no other options but to impose change, before it is imposed. "Syria has come to realize it is time to open up to the world," admitted Bouthaina Shaaban, a minister in Assadâs Cabinet, to United Press International last December. In some ways Assad finds himself today in a situation reminiscent to that of Mikhail Gorbachev at the time when the then leader of Soviet Union introduced Perestroika and Glasnost. The arms race between the United States and the USSR forced the Soviet Union to overspend money it simply did not have just to keep pace with NATO and Western military technologies and spending. The result, as we know, bankrupted the Soviet Union, forced the collapse of communism and led to the breakup of the USSR. Similarly, Syria today finds that its economy cannot keep pace and that change is badly needed. The demise of the Soviet Union, once Syriaâs chief supporter and its main arms supplier, has slowed Syriaâs ability to acquire modern military equipment. "Nevertheless, its military remains one of the largest and most capable in the region," according to the U.S. Department of State.
At Washingtonâs behest, both Egypt and Jordan have signed peace treaties with Israel, leaving Syria as the sole Arab country still in a state of war with Israel, a difficult and taxing reality on the country. Washington should now encourage Damascus to move forward on the road to openness and democratic change, even if these changes are at their own pace. Posted by: tipper 2004-02-05 |
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