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Pakistan â final frontier in âwar on terrorâ?
Is the United States planning to attack Al Qaeda remnants allegedly hiding in the northwest of Pakistan? A highly respected geopolitical and intelligence organisation believes that it is. In a recent analysis on US war on terror, STRATFOR claims that the question is when, not if, Washington will take on the Qaeda operatives in Pakistan. The organisation believes President Bush will launch the offensive after he gets re-elected. âUntil then,â STRATFOR maintains, âthe task of General John Abizaid, head of Central Command, will be to focus on developing a plan for moving into Al Qaedaâs homeland [Pakistan], if you will, and terminating the war by liquidating the final command centres [of the terrorist group]. Assuming that the preference is not to launch this campaign during the winter â not necessarily a fixed principle â the offensive would take place in Spring 2005.â
| That'll be worth watching... |
STRATFOR believes moving into Pakistan is one of the two steps that must logically follow the American âsuccessâ in Iraq. âHaving changed regime behaviour in Saudi Arabia, it is now in US interests to stabilise the situation there and prevent the fall of the Saudi government, or facilitate a shift to a more favourable regime,â says the analysis.
| I'd go with the more favorable regime â or regimes. I still think Soddy Arabia would make a nice collection of feuding emirates... |
â[Besides,] the United States must, at some point, liquidate the remnants of Al Qaeda in the Afghan-Pakistani theatre of operations. Ideally, the Pakistani army will bear the burden of moving into the tribal areas in the northwest and will do the job for the United States. In reality, it is extremely unlikely that the Pakistani military will have the ability or motivation to undertake that mission.
| They're also not noted for winning wars... |
âTherefore, it is likely that the United States will try to close out the war with a final offensive into northwestern Pakistan, preferably with the approval of a stable Pakistani government, but if that is impossible, then on its own.â
| The very thought makes my Liddle-Hart go pitty-pat... |
STRATFOR points out that Al Qaeda will do everything to prevent this âend gameâ by intensifying operations in Saudi Arabia which may cause the US intervention in that country. It may also try to destabilise Pakistan and launch extreme operations in the United States of America, possibly using mass destruction weapons.
| Which will move up the timetable and make our presence somewhat less humanitarian... |
Posted by: Fred Pruitt 2004-02-08 |
