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Last-minute poll surge keeps Livni's election hopes alive
 The centrist Israeli politician quietly favoured by Western governments may take Israel's premiership despite trailing her Right-wing rival, Benjamin Netanyahu, in the polls. The latest figures show Tzipi Livni, the foreign minister and leader of the moderate Kadima party, has almost closed the gap on the former prime minister. Surveys published on Friday predicted that she would get about 25 seats in the Knesset, or parliament, compared with 27 for the Likud Party's Netanyahu. The Right-wing politician, who had enjoyed a strong lead, appears to be losing ground in the final days of the campaign before polling day on Tuesday. But the kingmaker will almost certainly be Avigdor Lieberman, from the hard-Right Yisrael Beiteinu party, who is likely to win enough seats to be able to choose a prime minister and make or break a coalition. He may not, however, choose to install his nearest ideological ally, Netanyahu. Instead, Livni's supporters are convinced she could still emerge as premier. Eyal Arad, the Kadima campaign manager, said: "I believe we're going to win this one by a narrow margin." Between 20 and 30 per cent of Israelis are still undecided and these floating voters tend to be young and female, fitting the usual profile of Kadima supporters. Keeping "Bibi", as all Israelis know him, out of the premiership means tactically voting for Kadima. Arad said undecided voters understood that "if you don't vote for Tzipi Livini, then you'll get Bibi" and they would respond accordingly. Arad's personal forecast is that Livni will outperform the polls and come first with 27 to 30 seats. Even so, the block of Right-wing parties in the Knesset will still be larger than Livni's natural allies among the centre-Left. Posted by: Fred 2009-02-08 |
| http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=261968 |