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Congressional Budget Office: Rescession will end in 2009 without stimulas bill
[from a CBO report]CBO anticipates that the current recession, which started in December 2007, will last until the second half of 2009, making it the longest recession since World War II. (The longest such recessions otherwise, the 19731974 and 19811982 recessions, both lasted 16 months. If the current recession were to continue beyond midyear, it would last at least 19 months.) It could also be the deepest recession during the postwar period: By CBOs estimates, economic output over the next two years will average 6.8 percent below its potentialthat is, the level of output that would be produced if the economys resources were fully employed (see Figure 1). This ecession, however, may not result in the highest unemployment rate. That rate, in CBOs forecast, rises to 9.2 percent by early 2010 (up from a low of 4.4 percent at the end of 2006) but is still below the 10.8 percent rate seen near the end of the 19811982 recession. Posted by: mhw 2009-02-09 |
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