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Republicans Trail Obama Dems By One Point in Poll--Anti-Stimulus Push Is Working
Astonishing news on the generic ballot question. Pollster Scott Rasmussen reports that Democrats are currently ahead of Republicans by only 40 percent to 39 percent. Given that this generic ballot question over the years has tended to understate Republicans' performances in actual elections, one gathers that if the 2010 election for House seats were held today, Republicans would win or come close to winning a majority of seats--which is to say, they would gain about 40 seats. By way of comparison, they gained 52 seats when they won their majority in 1994.

This result may just be a momentary blip, which will pass away as quickly as it appeared, and we are a long, long, long way from the November 2010 elections. But if I were a Democratic member of Congress in even a marginally marginal district, I would be just a little bit worried. And if I were a conservative cheerleader against the Obama/Pelosi stimulus package, I would be concentrating less of my fire against the three Republicans who supported the Senate version and more on Democratic members of the House and (at least those who are up for reelection in 2010) the Senate.
Any Republican in the House who survived 2008 isn't going to be worried about 2010. The Pubs know that Bambi isn't going to get his army of followers mobilized for a mid-term. Even if the economy doesn't tank they should pick up 20 to 30 seats and that puts them in range for 2012. The problem is the Senate, where pick-ups look to be few, if any.

Posted by: tipper 2009-02-12
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=262363