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US upgrades forecast for Iraq oil revenues in 2004
Iraqi oil exports should rake in 13.5 billion dollars this year, 1.5 billion dollars more than first thought, a top US Treasury Department official said Thursday. "The numbers that were estimated for total revenues for 2004 were about 12 billion (dollars) originally and now that is up another, about 1.5 billion," the undersecretary for international affairs John Taylor said. "So that is a 1.5 billion dollar increase in the total revenues that are being forecast from the oil in 2004," Taylor told reporters in a telephone conference call as he visited Baghdad. Last month, the bipartisan Congressional Budget Office said Iraq's oil would likely bring in 12 billion dollars in 2004 and a total 69 billion dollars over 2004-2007 as the infrastructure was patched up. The CBO said the 69-billion-dollar figure was the most likely, but that revenues could be between 44 billion and 89 billion, depending on prices and other factors. But the CBO said the oil export revenue "will probably not be sufficient to cover all of the country's capital investment needs, at least in the short run." It added that if Iraq fails to get relief from international debts, "it may have trouble funding any rebuilding efforts." The CBO pointed out that international donors had pledged some 36 billion dollars in aid for Iraq, about half of which would come from US grants. Yet Iraq had debts, contractual claims and war reparation claims that could be anywhere from 45 billion to 400 billion dollars. Improving security in Iraq was critical for any economic improvement that could attract foreign investors, the CBO said.
Posted by: Fred Pruitt 2004-02-21 |
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