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The Prospects for Stability in Saudi Arabia in 2004
By Dr. Anthony H. CordesmanSAUDI-US RELATIONS INFORMATION SERVICE A cup of coffee and snacks are recommended when reading the full analyses. Only lead paragraph of each part is posted here. This (three part) analysis addresses the short-term stability of Saudi Arabia in 2004 and the steps the Kingdom must take in the mid and long-term to ensure its stability and development. The resulting risk assessment sees little immediate threat to the Kingdomâs stability, notes it has taken substantial steps to deal with terrorism, projects a good economic forecast for 2004, and describes a continuing process of economic reform. At the same time, it makes it clear that Saudi Arabia has only begun a process of counter terrorism and reform that must continue for years to come and that it must sustain such reform to remain stable and meet the needs of its people. A detail list of near and long term issues and problems is provided with special attention to economic and demographic issues. [Part I] Reducing the Threat of Terrorism One must be careful about overreacting to current events in Saudi Arabia, both in terms of terrorism and economics. The Kingdom has both short and long-term problems it must come to grips with. It must do more to fight terrorism, and it will not have another boom year like 2003 or experience any sustained reduction in its need for economic and social reforms. The regime, however, is scarcely at risk and short-term economic prospects remain good. This has several major impacts for U.S. and Western policy [Part II] The Saudi Economy in 2003 and 2004 The best forecasting of the Saudi economy in recent years has come from Brad Bourland of the Samba Financial Group. His forecast for 2004 in no way indicates that Saudi Arabia can afford to slack off on economic reform, but it also indicates that forecast oil revenues will create an economic climate favorable enough to have a stabilizing effect [Part III] The Issue of Political, Economic, and Social Reform The fact that Saudi Arabia has time is particularly important because it is in the process of significant political, economic, and social reforms. These reforms are still moving much too slowly â a grim reality that affects every country in the Arab world. At the same time, Saudi performance during 2003 is striking in that reform continued in spite of a massive increase in oil export revenues. During the year, Saudi Arabia sustained a process of reform that had begun to sharply accelerate shortly after Crown Prince Abdullah became the de facto leader of the government. Posted by: GK 2004-02-24 |
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