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Air Force downplays weakened GPS system risk
Imagine not being able to get cash from an automated teller machine, or 911 responders desperately searching for victims they know are there somewhere. Even worse, imagine precision-guided munitions completely missing their targets because the global positioning satellite system the military has come to rely on failed.All this could happen early in the next decade if the Air Force is unable to modernize the GPS satellite constellation, warns a new report by the Government Accountability Office. It is uncertain whether the Air Force will be able to acquire new satellites in time to maintain current GPS service without interruption, according to the report, released in April. Such a gap in capability could have wide-ranging impacts on all GPS users. GPS is the worlds only fully operational position, navigation and timing system. The global economy from airlines to shipping companies to banks depends on the Air Force maintaining a constellation of 24 satellites at all times to keep the system working. Air Force officials acknowledge that a series of launch delays or on-orbit failures could cause problems for civilian users, but said the military would only be affected minimally, even if the system fell to fewer than 24 satellites. Operators could buy extra time with the remaining satellites by shutting down nonessential systems to save power, extending the satellites life. We would still have GPS capability, and we would manage the constellation to optimize performance to support war-fighting activity, so we probably wouldnt see much of a difference, said Col. Dave Madden, commander of the GPS wing at Los Angeles Air Force Base, Calif. The bottom line is we have high confidence [in our] plans to sustain and modernize the constellation, he said. The Air Force plans to invest more than $5 billion during the next five years to modernize GPS satellites and ground control segments. A delay of even two years for the next-generation GPS III the first of which is scheduled for launch in 2014 would reduce the probability of maintaining the minimum constellation to about 10 percent by 2018, the report says. The report notes that this is not an unlikely outcome, since problems with the current GPS IIF satellites put the program three years behind schedule. The Air Force currently has 34 GPS satellites on orbit 10 more than the minimum requirement including four backups that are not even broadcasting a signal, Buckman said. Over the next four years, the Air Force plans to launch 13 current-generation GPS satellites, which Air Force officials have said should provide a smooth transition from the current to modernized system. We recognize that there is a risk there, said Col. Dave Buckman, Air Force Space Commands lead for position, navigation and timing systems. What we would say however, is we would not assign the same risk to that as perhaps was indicated in the GAO report. Posted by: tu3031 2009-05-22 |
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