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Challenger Mousavi Has Conservative Past
By JAY SOLOMONWASHINGTON -- The emergence of Mir Hossein Mousavi as a challenger to Iran's clerical establishment has been cheered as potentially heralding a new moderation in Tehran. But his record also suggests that he would hew to a number of Tehran's more controversial policies. Mr. Mousavi governed as a social conservative while he was prime minister during the 1980s, and remains a committed supporter of the values and clerical system born of the 1979 Iranian Islamic revolution, said diplomats and Iran analysts.
Many Iran analysts say that while a Mousavi presidency, if it happened, could open numerous new areas for U.S.-Iranian cooperation, serious stumbling blocks would remain. President Barack Obama addressed that distinction Tuesday in an interview with CNBC. "Although there is amazing ferment taking place in Iran, the difference in actual policies between [Iranian President Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad and Mousavi in terms of their actual policies may not be as great as advertised," he said. "I think it's important to understand that either way, we are going to be dealing with a regime in Iran that is hostile to the U.S." Mr. Obama Tuesday also offered support for Mr. Mousavi's supporters. "Something has happened in Iran. There is a questioning of the kinds of antagonistic postures towards the international community that have taken place in the past," Mr. Obama said. Of Tehran's suppressing of protests in response, he added, "That is not how governments should interact with their people." Republicans who question Mr. Obama's plan to engage in direct diplomacy with Iran are seizing upon the election fracas to demand Mr. Obama denounce the current regime and support Mr. Mousavi more strongly. "He should speak out that this is a corrupt, flawed sham of an election," Sen. John McCain of Arizona said Tuesday on NBC's "Today" show. "The Iranian people have been deprived of their rights. We support them in their struggle against a repressive, oppressive regime." Mr. Mousavi campaigned on a platform of moderating Iran's foreign policy and improving ties with the U.S., heralding a potential break from four years in which President Ahmadinejad openly sought confrontation over the nuclear question and Israel. Still, it remains unclear just how significantly Mr. Mousavi could redirect Tehran's foreign and defense policies, short of a recasting of the Iranian political system dominated by conservative supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said U.S. officials. Iran's last reformist president, Mohammad Khatami, regularly clashed with Mr. Khamenei on social, economic and international issues and left office in 2005 with little to show for his progressive agenda. While serving as Iran's prime minister during the 1980s, Mr. Mousavi was viewed as a competent manager, but politically cautious. This time around, Mr. Mousavi has pledged to loosen the restrictions Mr. Ahmadinejad placed on Iranian nongovernmental organizations, media and women's groups in recent years. These elements of Iranian society have been among the most vigorous in pressing for Tehran's rapprochement with the U.S. He pledged during the campaign his commitment to Iran's nuclear power, but also held out the potential for direct talks with the U.S. Speaking to Time magazine on Friday, he said there are two elements to the nuclear question: "One is our right to nuclear energy, which is non-negotiable. The second issue is related to concerns about the diversion of this program towards weaponization. Personally, I view this second part, which is both technical and political, as negotiable." U.S. officials were hoping the potential election of Mr. Mousavi could quickly lead to direct negotiations over the future of Iran's nuclear program. Mr. Obama's aides also seek more substantive cooperation with Iran on stabilizing Iraq and Afghanistan and confronting global threats such as narcotics smuggling and piracy. A number of U.S. and Western diplomats caution, however, that if Mr. Mousavi were to prevail it could actually help Iran's pursuit of nuclear technologies. The Obama administration has been seeking a unified international stance toward Tehran. It has been lobbying nations such as Russia and China to support expansive new sanctions against Iran should its leaders not respond to Mr. Obama's calls for direct dialogue. The elevation of a moderate face in Tehran, as opposed to Mr. Ahmadinejad, could delay action against Tehran if foreign governments decide to give Mr. Mousavi some political space and time, these diplomats warn. In such a dynamic, hardliners in Iran could rapidly push ahead with Tehran's nuclear program. "If your goal is to increase the international sanctions regime against Tehran, it's much easier to do if the Iranian president is a Holocaust-denying radical," said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a Washington think tank, referring to Mr. Ahmadinejad. Posted by: Steve White 2009-06-17 |
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