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Bush Takes Back The Lead As âPrimary Effectâ Wanes
President Bush has regained the lead from Sen. John Kerry in the latest IBD/TIPP Poll as the boost the challenger got from the Democratic primaries wears off and the incumbent starts his own campaign in earnest. The nationwide poll of 863 adults taken last Monday through Thursday showed that, among 743 registered voters, Bush leads Kerry 45% to 40%, with 6% going to Independent Ralph Nader. In a two-way race Bush leads Kerry 46% to 43%.A week earlier, Bush trailed Kerry in IBD/TIPP polling by a 44%-41% margin. But the president reclaimed support in his traditional strongholds. Bush now leads Kerry 56% to 33% in Republican-loyal, or "red," states, 51% to 38% in the South and 49% to 40% in the Midwest. Bushâs lead in swing states, however, has narrowed to 1 point from 4. But Kerryâs lead in Democrat-loyal (blue) states has shrunk to 9 points from 12, and his advantage in urban areas has narrowed to 10 points from 18. In suburban areas, Bushâs lead widened to 18 points from 13. In rural America, a traditional Bush stronghold, Kerry ran even in the week-earlier survey. But now Bush is back up by 14 points. "The week before, the picture was distorted in aftermath of the primaries," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TIPP, a unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence and IBDâs polling partner. Now, after Democratic candidatesâ months-long questioning of Bush policies, "things are returning to normal," he said. The presidentâs ad campaign may also be bearing its first fruits, Mayur said. News from Iraq also took a turn for the better, he noted, with the signing of an interim constitution. Another possible factor, Mayur said, is resurgent Christian activism brought about by the emotional stirrings of Mel Gibsonâs blockbuster film, "The Passion of the Christ." In contrast to the volatile numbers for Bush and Kerry, the vote for Nader stayed the same. In a two-candidate race, where Bush has a 46%-43% lead, 10% are undecided. In a three-way race, Bushâs lead expands by 2 percentage points â 45% to 40%, with Nader at 6% and undecideds at 7%. Nader draws more voters from Kerry than Bush. Over half (51%) of those favoring Nader mentioned that they would vote for Kerry in a two-candidate poll question. Only a sixth (17%) would vote for Bush. "Nader is clearly an asset for the president," said Mayur. The IBD/TIPP poll has a margin of error plus/minus 3.4 percentage points. Posted by: ne1469 2004-03-13 |
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