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Belmont Club: The Toothpaste Effect
Trimmed to one paragraph; I suggest reading the whole thing. The Serbs will flee and the UN with them. The US offensive in Pakistan and Afghanistan, unrest among Syrian Kurds and continued resistance to the Mullahs in Iran against which the Islamists can mount no military riposte has naturally reduced them to attacking civilian targets wherever they can -- attacks which the press represents as great victories -- and there are no softer targets than those in Europe. The dreadful strokes which will now descend upon the Old Continent will not, as some imagine, bring down the New. They will simply smite the Old, passing easily through their Maginot Line of treaties and accords with the same ease as an icepick through a sheet of paper. Reiterating some comments on my âblog: There was a 48 hour turnaround between the new Spanish Governmentâs declarations and the upsurge in violence there. Thatâs pretty fast; theyâve either planned this or are adapting very fast. I think theyâve been searching for a while for a place where their attacks are effective, not in a tactical sense of being able to massacre civilians, but in being able to turn it to strategic advantage. You see, the terrorists, as far as the Iraqi theater of operations go, are having problems, unless something changes soon (and it might): they can kill a lot of civilians but it doesnât get them anywhere. Contrast this with the Tet Offensive, which did have strategic (or perhaps the better term is moral? Hmm, too many different meanings there) effects despite the fact that the VC sufffered huge casualties and lost the battles. Giap wrote that they thought they had lost the Tet Offensive, until they saw the TV reports of demonstrations in the US. Al Qaeda needs a place to fight battles where theyâll have a strategic effect even if they lose. I suspect they think theyâve just found it. Posted by: Phil Fraering 2004-03-19 |
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