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Did Republicans already win in Massachusetts?
Not next Tuesday's Senate election itself, of course -- few observers really think that's winnable even now, no matter how toxic the environment for Democrats these days. But the fact that this is a race at all -- or, at least, the fact that it's being treated like a race over the final week -- is itself a victory that tells important tales for both parties. A narrative for 2010 didn't have to wait beyond the first month of the year to get written. The pieces are there: the Kennedy seat, the fate of the health care bill, Tea Party fervor, an anti-establishment Republican, a Democrat clinging to a lead in the bluest of states. Democrats are being forced to spend very real resources in a place they should not, by any calculation, have to worry about it. They're being met by resources (perhaps a more renewable variety at this stage) that Republicans never dreamed would be worth spending. And they're being forced to combat the very real perception that if it can happen in the Hub, it can happen in Arkansas or Nevada or Virginia, too. "Aware that she has little time for the hand-shaking and baby-kissing of a standard political campaign, [Democratic candidate Martha Coakley] has focused instead on rallying key political leaders, Democratic activists, and union organizers, in hope they will get people to the polls," David Filipov writes in The Boston Globe. "By at least one measure, her strategy is working: A Globe poll published Sunday showed her leading her Republican rival, state Senator Scott Brown, by 15 percentage points," he writes. "For many Democrats, that is too close for comfort, in a race for the seat held for so long by a Kennedy in one of the bluest states in the land. Other polls have showed the race much tighter. Despite that, there is a subdued, almost dispassionate quality to her public appearances, which are surprisingly few." At the very least: "Massachusetts state Sen. Scott Brown (R) has thrown a major scare into the Democratic establishment in his bid to win next Tuesday's special Senate election over once heavily favored Attorney General Martha Coakley," Dan Balz and Chris Cillizza write in The Washington Post. "A victory, or even a narrow loss, by Brown in the competition for the symbolically important seat would be interpreted as another sign that voters have turned away from the Democrats at the start of the midterm election year." Not just a win is potentially dangerous for Democrats: "Brown's threat to health reform is in some ways larger. He's showing how Republicans can run against reform -- something sure to play out in other high-profile campaigns this fall, such as those of Reps. Frank Kratovil Jr. (D-Md.) and John Adler (D-N.J.), along with Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-Ark.) and Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.)," Politico's Chris Frates reports. "A close race -- within five points, or even ten -- would generate significant panic among Democrats in other races presumed to be safe," The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder writes. No running from health care -- from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee's new ad targeting Brown: "On health care? Brown wants to be the deciding vote to kill Ted Kennedy's legislation." "In a fresh sign of increasing nervousness among Democrats about the race, the national party committees on Tuesday chipped in more than $1 million to help boost Coakley's prospects," Roll Call's Emily Cadei reports. Massachusetts Democratic Party Chairman John Walsh said Organizing for America is putting out the word to activists: "The call's gone out that we need all hands on deck, formally, informally ... by carrier pigeon, whatever we can get." Coakley was in Washington for a fundraiser at a wine bar on Capitol Hill Tuesday night with the Massachusetts congressional delegation (optic alert!). The delegation's dean, Rep. Ed Markey, D-Mass., was quoted by The Hotline as having said inside the fundraiser: "If we don't win this, 2010 will be hell for Democrats." And, asked whether she's asked President Obama to campaign for her, Coakley told reporters: "I haven't." Worth keeping an eye on -- if Brown wins this could be huge: "Should Republican Scott Brown pull off an upset victory in next week's special election in Massachusetts, Senate Democrats may seek to use the chaos surrounding the appointment of Roland Burris last year as a precedent for delaying the swearing in of a man who campaigned as the 41st 'no' vote on health care reform," Posted by: GolfBravoUSMC 2010-01-13 |
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