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Ukrainian polls point to comeback for Yanukovich
Ukrainians go to the polls tomorrow in the first presidential election since the 2004 Orange revolution, with Viktor Yanukovich, the defeated candidate of five years ago, positioned for a dramatic comeback. Opinion polls give the opposition leader a commanding lead over his main challenger, Yulia Tymoshenko, the prime minister, with other candidates well behind, including president Viktor Yushchenko, the hero of 2004.The vote, which follows five years of political in-fighting, will be widely watched given Ukraine's strategic location between Russia and the European Union. The new president's priority will be restoring political stability and confidence in the recession-hit economy and resuming co-operation with the International Monetary Fund, which has suspended a $16.4bn (11.3bn, £10bn) package. More than 3,000 monitors are being deployed, including 800 from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe and EU states. "It's noisy, but likely to be honest," an election observer said. No candidate is expecting to win outright in tomorrow's first round. But Mr Yanukovich, who has a support rating of about 30 per cent in opinion polls, and Ms Tymoshenko, who is on 20 per cent, are likely to emerge as leaders and go into a run-off on February 7. Mr Yanukovich, a former lorry driver, was discredited five years ago when his campaign was condemned for fraud and abuse of power. But he now is benefiting from disappointment with Mr Yushchenko's failure to stop bickering, not least with Ms Tymoshenko, his Orange revolution ally. Mr Yushchenko's popularity has plunged to below 5 per cent but he is campaigning hard to undercut Ms Tymoshenko. Meanwhile, the polls also suggest a last-minute popularity surge for Sergei Tigipko, a wealthy banker turned politician. He is seen as an alternative to the three leading politicians by voters angry at the perpetual bickering. About a quarter of voters are undecided, set to vote against all or not at all, according to polls. In the run-up to the hotly contested elections, the two frontrunners have accused each of plotting fraud. It is unclear if the threat is real or an attempt to rally voters. Since 2004, Ukraine has held two parliamentary elections, both judged to be fair by western observers, including the OSCE. The Committee of Voters of Ukraine, an election watchdog, said poor planning, administrative abuses and election law loopholes left room for abuse and added: "It's a step backwards." But a western observer said "the competitive nature should make it more difficult for the rival factions to cheat". Humiliated after backing Mr Yanukovich in 2004, Russia has kept its distance. Bilateral relations under the pro-west Mr Yushchenko have soured. But to Moscow's approval, candidates want to improve relations with Russia, while sticking to European Union membership plans. Posted by: Steve White 2010-01-17 |
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