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Payroll and Household surveys data out at end of week
Late this week the results of the March payroll survey will be announced. This number has become one of the most important things in the election. If the aggregate payroll numbers start increasing by 200k between late spring and the end of summer, Bush probably wins in a walk. If they increase at, say, 20k for this period, Kerry has a chance.The household survey numbers are used to compute the unemployment rate. This number is already low by historic standards but much higher than in 1999-2000 during the telecom and dotcom bubble. If the unemployment rate goes up each month between now and the election and the aggregate payroll shrinks, Kerry probably wins in a walk.The BLS has a a primer on the differences between the household and payroll numbers at the linked site. The article doesnât have the comments I made above in HiLite. That is for those Rantburgians who want to watch the end of the week action. Posted by: mhw 2004-03-29 |
| http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=29314 |