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Look who's back
The movement led by anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is poised to make a dramatic return to the forefront of Iraqi Shia politics, combining its success in recent elections with the anticipated elevation of its leader's religious status.Sadr's followers are projected to have won more than 40 seats in the new parliament, increasing their share by at least ten. They are now the strongest faction in the Iraqi National Alliance, the main bloc that challenged prime minister Nuri al-Maliki for the Shia vote. Maliki has been regarded with suspicion by the Sadrists since the Iraqi military led a crackdown on their militia in 2008. Alongside growing leverage over their political rivals, the Sadrists are expected to enjoy greater spiritual authority among their supporters as Muqtada continues his studies to become an eminent Shia scholar, or ayatollah. Officials close to the 36-year-old cleric say he is making swift progress in his schooling at a seminary in the Iranian holy city of Qom. It is unclear whether he will graduate soon, as most ayatollahs spend several decades attaining the rank. It is also as yet unclear whether the Sadrists will enter government or form an opposition, as final election results have yet to be released and protracted coalition talks are expected to follow. Whatever they decide, analysts say the Sadrists will be impossible to ignore in the new parliament. "They will have their word in every decision," Abdullah Jaafar, a retired professor of political sciences in Baghdad, said. As the most blatantly anti-American of the Shia political groups, Sadr's movement is particularly well placed to capitalise on the planned withdrawal of most United States military forces from Iraq later this year. "If the Americans withdraw at the expected time, the Sadrists will tell their followers that they kicked the troops out," Jaafar said. He added that the Sadrists would oppose any attempt to extend the Americans' stay in Iraq. As long as the pullout proceeds as planned, Sadr's movement is unlikely to seek a violent confrontation with the US military, according to Patrick Cockburn, a British journalist and author of a book on Sadr. "Why on earth should they disrupt the withdrawal since it's what they wanted anyway," he said. Cockburn added that he expected the remnants of Sadr's militia to stick to the terms of a current ceasefire, while the movement channeled its energies into politics. "Sadrists are surprising in being slightly more numerous and better organised than people imagine," he said. Posted by: tipper 2010-03-27 |
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