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Den Beste: a targeted response to Falluja
EFL; go read the whole thing, I think heâs got it right.
. . . in Falluja, we have seen another operation consistent with the doctrine of terrorism, only this time the US was the target. Four American civilians driving through that city were killed, and their bodies were desecrated by an exultant crowd. Foreign cameramen captured it all.
| I'm also curious as to how the foreign cameramen were so conveniently on the spot... |
The Baathist insurgency thought that ongoing attacks would cause American demoralization and retreat. That didnât work, because they monumentally misjudged the American character. But the goal of this attack is to inspire American fury. What they hope is that the Americans will be blinded by hatred and will do something extremely stupid: to punish the Sunnis collectively for the actions of the terrorist group.
| Certain American voices I heard on the radio today were busy exhibiting a distinctly Spanish character, beating their collective CBS breast and mooing about quagmires. But SDB is right: overreaction would be as much a mistake as underreaction. Reprisals should be directed at everyone on tape and at everyone the guys on tape ID, not at leveling and city and sowing the ground with salt, much as we'd like to... |
Remember, thatâs the basic theory behind terrorism; thatâs the core of the doctrine of terrorism as a form of violent warfare. It is not the terrorist act itself which helps advance the political goals of the terrorist group; it is rather the reprisal. Terrorism is a form of jiu-jitsu, a way of using an enemyâs strength against himself. (In jiu-jitsu, you donât throw an opponent. You aid him in throwing himself.)
| It's the separation of the populace into "us" and "them," with "them" being the bad guys... |
If there are broad reprisals against the uncommitted friendly population because of the acts of the terrorists, that population will become motivated and polarized in favor of the position held by the terrorists. If the American response is viewed by the Sunnis as being directed broadly at all Sunnis, rather than being targeted specifically at those responsible for this outrage, then thereâs every likelihood that the Sunnis will begin to wonder whether the US is actually genuine in its attempts to include the Sunnis as equal partners in the new government of Iraq. That would be a major victory for al Qaeda.
| On the other hand, we can do a bit of "us and them" outselves, by continuously reminding the Kurds and the Shiites that the Sunni Triangle comprises the same people who brutalized Iraq for 35 years — actually longer, since Sammy wasn't the first ever dictator. While Kurds and Shiites build stability and return to civilization, nothing's changed in the Triangle. One thing we should be doing is policing Fallujah with Kurds and Shiites, and excluding Sunnis from the police and security apparatus. |
This terrorist attack was an application of violence intended to derail the American effort to set up a liberal democracy in Iraq, by attempting to provoke an American reprisal which would lead to Sunni suspicion and reduce Sunni participation in that democracy. . . . We have to respond, and we have to respond massively. But that response must be targeted only at those truly involved in this attack. Sunnis collectively must not feel themselves victimized by it. . . .
| The trick will be to make the Sunnis feel victimized by the loons in their midst: "What the hell have you gotten us into, Mahmoud?" |
What is needed is a response which simultaneously punishes al Qaeda and reassures the Sunnis. But to do that, there has to be preparation. Our intelligence people now are busting their butts trying to learn everything they can about this attack and those responsible for it. . . .
| We have the tapes. We have the photos. Ask the guys on the photos. And ask them what the guys with the keffiyehs over their faces looked like without them. |
Posted by: Mike 2004-04-02 |
