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63 Democratic House Seats In Play For Republicans
That Republican wave is looking bigger: 63 Democrat-held House seats are now toss-ups, likely GOP pickups or lean Democrat. That's based on average of estimates from the Cook Political Report, the Rothenberg Political Report, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball and Real Clear Politics.When IBD looked at that average about a month ago, it was 48. By some estimates, the Republican potential target list is far bigger. National Review's Jim Geraghty recently released his list of 99 Democrat seats in play. RCP's Sean Trende said last month he wouldn't be shocked if Republicans won 100 seats or more, though he stressed a 1994-style result would be more likely. The whole analysis is worth checking out. In 1994, Republicans won 54 seats. This year, they need to pick up a net 41 seats to retake the House. So perhaps it's not surprising that six months from the election, and we're already getting articles about whether Nancy Pelosi will remain leader of the House Democrats should her party return to the minority. Over at Salon (not exactly a pro-GOP website), Mike Madden considers the scenario, but doesn't see any obvious replacements: It's hard to imagine a party suffering such a cataclysm at the ballot boxes wouldn't want to shake up its leadership. (And it's not clear that Pelosi would want to return to being House minority leader after four years wielding the gavel.) But there aren't really any strong candidates to take her place -- because Pelosi has, over the years, outmaneuvered all her rivals.Regardless, speculating about "Minority Leader Pelosi" this early can't be a good omen for the Democrats. Posted by: Fred 2010-05-09 |
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