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Seoul to blame North Korea for warship attack
(Reuters) - South Korea will formally blame North Korea for sinking one of its navy ships in March, killing 46 sailors, The Washington Post reported on Tuesday.
We know this. The issue is and remains, what will South Korea do about it? Sinking another country's warship is an act of war. There's no other reason to do it. North Korea wants either to provoke a war, or attack the South Koreans with the knowledge that the latter will not strike back.
Why provoke a war? It would seem insane, wouldn't it; South Korea has an economy that is 25 times the size of the North. The South has a military that particularly in the last decade has become well equipped, well trained and assured in its leadership. You'd think that the last thing the North wants is a war, unless it's insane.
While we shouldn't discount insanity, the North has likely made a very fine calculation: either 1) the South will back down and not strike back (most likely) or 2) the South will want to strike but will be restrained by the US and Japan (next most likely) or 3) they can prevail against retaliation or even all-out war by the South. The North's leaders may have judged their own military to be stronger than we think it is, or the South to be less strong. Or, they may feel that they can fight an 'asymmetrical' war that negates the strengths of the South, and as a last resort they may have the assurance that come what may, the Chinese will remain in their corner. As a result of these calculations, the North has attacked a warship.
So far, they've gotten away with it. Who thinks the South will go to war? Who thinks Obama will let that happen? Who thinks China will let the North lose?
Look for another big attack on the South sometime later this year. It's coming. |
Citing unidentified U.S. and East Asian officials, the newspaper said on its Web site Seoul had reached the conclusion that North Korea was responsible for the torpedo attack after investigators from Australia, Britain, Sweden and the United States pieced together portions of the ship.
The navy ship Cheonan sank on March 26 after an explosion on the vessel as it sailed in the Yellow Sea off South Korea's west coast. The Post said the officials said analyses showed the torpedo was identical to a North Korean torpedo previously obtained by South Korea.
The formal accusation is expected to be announced on Thursday and South Korea will ask the U.N. Security Council to take up the matter, Post sources said.
The White House said President Barack Obama and South Korean President Lee Myong-bak spoke about the Cheonan incident by telephone Monday night but did not disclose details of the investigation. Lee thanked Obama for U.S. help in the investigation and Obama repeated the U.S. commitment to South Korea's security, a White House statement said.
South Korean officials had made little secret of their belief that Pyongyang, which has raised concerns around the world with its nuclear tests, was behind the attack.
Posted by: Steve White 2010-05-19 |
