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Global Warming Undeniable
 Now, why would the editors of National Geographic have an agenda?Is that a trick question? "Global warming is undeniable," and it's happening fast, a new U.S. government report says. An in-depth analysis of ten climate indicators all point to a marked warming over the past three decades, with the most recent decade being the hottest on record, according to the latest of the U.S. National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration's annual "State of the Climate" So we're looking at 120 years of data? Not much adjustment required for that. How'd you hide the decline? The report focused on climate changes measured in 2009 in the context of newly available data on long-term developments. "Long-term" meaning over the last few decades. For instance, surface air temperatures recorded from more than 7,000 weather stations around the world over the past few decades confirm an "unmistakable upward trend," the study says. Ahhhh! A new definition of "Global Warming"! Lots of stations, short time period! I noticed a weather station near my home the other day. It was on an overpass above the intersection of two major highways in the middle of a big city. And for the first time, scientists put data from climate indicators--such as ocean temperature and sea-ice cover--together in one place. Their consistency "jumps off the page at you," report co-author Derek Arndt said. Three hundred scientists analyzed data on 37 climate indicators, but homed in on 10 that the study says are especially revealing. Those indicators include: humidity, sea-surface temperature, sea ice cover, snow cover, ocean heat content, glacier cover, air temperature in the lower atmosphere, sea level, temperature over land, and temperature over oceans. And the accuracy of the data is consistent over the period? The influx of greenhouses gases into the atmosphere has also hit oceans particularly hard, the NOAA report says. New evidence suggests that more than 90 percent of that heat trapped by greenhouses gases over the past 50 years has been absorbed into the oceans. Oh, I'm sorry; not 30-40 years, the period examined must be as much as 50 years. That's a great base for extrapolation! Because water expands as it warms, the added ocean heat is contributing to sea level rise as well as to the rapid melting of Arctic summer sea ice. That melting in 2010 is on track to be worse than 2007, when Arctic ice cover reached its lowest point on record. Like my gin-and-tonic overflows when the ice melts. Such climatic shifts are already ushering in extreme weather, which plagued much of the globe in 2009, according to the report. The NOAA report--published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society--is different from other climate publications, because it's based on observed data, not computer models, making it the "climate system's annual scorecard," the authors wrote. "It's telling us what's going on in the real world, rather than the imaginary world," said Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist at the Boulder, Colorado-based National Center for Atmospheric Research. Another revelation: Computer models are no good! Even so, the report "does not carry the authority of the IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] by any means," Trenberth noted. That's partially because IPCC reports--the latest of which came out in 2007 with a similar claim that warming is "unequivocal"--are produced on longer time scales, with more time for review. And even with real-world data, "the theory with regard to global warming is still incomplete"--especially since the atmosphere is so complex, Trenberth cautioned. This "can be seen at a glance," for example, "by looking out of the window at the wondrous, great variety in clouds." I'm sure the sixth-graders lap this up like warm milk. Posted by: Bobby 2010-08-03 |
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