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Afghanistan Forty Years from Now
A problem that lasts forty years is too long to be solved by the military. A problem that lasts forty years is too long to be solved even by the politicians.Afghanistan has been a problem for the USA since 1996, when the Taliban took over. The Korean War has entered its 60th year, and that problem has not been solved yet. In order to understand Afghanistan in 2050, we can dispose of wars and politics. Battles will be won and lost, deals will be made and broken. Unless there is unusually brilliant or unusually atrocious individuals in power, the results of these things even out over time. Likewise, we cannot expect any meaningful change to the terrain in only 40 years. The Hindu Kush and Pamir Mountains will still be there, and the people will still be Muslim. The physical and human terrain of Afghanistan mean that the largest industries in Afghanistan will be natural resource extraction. In 2050 Afghanistan will be a natural resource exporting satellite of China. To the extent that U.S. strategy accounts for this fact, there will be less mayhem. To the extent it does not, there will be more. But absent unusually good or unusually atrocious leadership, this outcome is inevitable. Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 2010-08-10 |
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