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Rethinking Armageddon
No one likes to consider the possibility of nuclear war. But somebodyâs got to do it, and that sober duty fell recently to a special task force of the Defense Science Board, which has just recommended useful changes to the U.S. strategic arsenal to fit our post-September 11 world.First we should note what the task force does not want to change--the high threshold for use of nuclear weapons. "It is, and will likely remain, American policy to keep the nuclear threshold high and to pursue non-nuclear attack options whenever possible. Nothing in our assessment or recommendations seeks to change that goal," the panel writes. "Nevertheless, in extreme circumstances, the president may have no choice but to turn to nuclear options." The scenarios the task force envisions arenât, regrettably, all that extreme. High on the list would be eliminating an enemyâs weapons of mass destruction before it has a chance to use them on us. (Think rogue states and assorted terrorist groups.) Or removing an adversaryâs regime while saving a country (North Korea). Or ending a WMD war quickly (India-Pakistan). The task force argues that we need a better nuclear doctrine than the mutually assured destruction, or MAD, of the Cold War. Current plans to refurbish the nationâs stockpile of nuclear weapons from the 1970s and â80s "will not meet the countryâs future needs," the report says. Large, high-fallout nuclear weapons designed to obliterate cities wonât deter terrorists who might doubt that a President would use them in response to an attack. Rather, the task force wants to see the U.S. nuclear arsenal expanded to include more precise, lower-yield weapons--especially those that could penetrate targets buried deep underground where conventional weapons canât reach. The idea is to give a President the option of incinerating enemy weapons, leaders and command-and-control systems with as little damage as possible to civilians. Having the option of highly precise nuclear weapons with greatly reduced radioactivity would also make the threat of their use more believable to terrorists contemplating attacks on the U.S. or allies. The panel has a host of additional recommendations that donât include nukes. It wants a new cruise missile with a conventional warhead that could be launched from an offshore submarine and strike a target 1,500 miles away in 15 minutes. It recommends that the 50 Peacekeeper intercontinental ballistic missiles now scheduled for deactivation be refitted with conventional warheads and deployed to Cape Canaveral in Florida and Vandenberg Air Force Base in California. This would give the U.S. "a 30-minute response capability for strategic strike world-wide." Like just about every report out of the Pentagon these days, the task force highlights the need for better intelligence. In the context of the U.S. strategic forces, the task force wants better human intelligence, better technology and more creative thinking. One recommendation calls for the development of "cyberspies"--electronic sensors that flesh-and-blood spies could place on potential targets and which could then be tracked and targeted from space. The report hasnât got a lot of attention outside the Pentagon. Inside the building is another story. The Defense Science Board, chaired by William Schneider, is a prestigious body whose recommendations are taken seriously and often translated into action. None of this is likely to go down well with critics in Congress who immediately deem any proposed change in nuclear policy to be provocative. They are already on record as opposing the Bush Administrationâs push for the development of new low-yield nukes. The use of nuclear weapons remains a last resort. No American President wants to cross that threshold. But if he has to, to protect American lives, surely itâs preferable to have the option of using a highly precise, low-yield weapon that strikes a specific target than the Armageddon alternative that prevailed during the Cold War. Posted by: tipper 2004-04-21 |
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