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China gains foothold via Rajin port
A major expansion of the port under joint Chinese-North Korean administration would give China direct access to the Sea of Japan, patrolled by the Navy's 7th Fleet. China has denied a report in the South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo that Chinese troops and armored vehicles have been stationed around Rajin. A U.S. official, authorized to speak on intelligence matters, said "there are no indications at this point that China is moving forces to Rajin." Nevertheless, the State Department issued this caution: "We would urge countries to be vigilant in their business dealings with North Korea, given North Korea's history of proliferation activities, but there is little (the U.S.) can say on a speculative question about the future use of Rajin port or potential Chinese or North Korean intentions there." A White House official, asked for comment on the port and the Chinese-North Korean development plans, said flatly: "We are reluctant to talk on this topic." Keith Luse, who has been following the Rajin issue as a staff member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, said the port's development is not only meant to improve exports from China's land-locked northern provinces the official stated purpose but "is part of a larger effort to increase China's presence in North Korea." "China's moving of investments into North Korea could affect the reunification of Korea," Luse said. Dick Nanto, a specialist with the Congressional Research Service, said "China has tried to get North Korea to open up (economically) before. But North Korea keeps doing things like blowing up South Korean ships. So China decided if North Korea won't do it on their own, China will do it for them. There's a lot of industry in northern China, but they have to ship it south by rail. It's a lot cheaper to do it by ship." Another focus of China's interest in Rajin, according to Nanto and other experts, is to gain access to North Korea's substantial but relatively untouched natural mineral resources and then ship them from the port. Though the economic motives for China and North Korea are clear, possible military consequences may be even more important. The port would give China direct access to the Sea of Japan. "I'm sure that could be" China's intent, Nanto said. In 2004, Spanish scholar Daniel Goma Pinilla wrote in the publication China Perspectives: "For China, not having any supply post for its war fleet in this zone puts a major break on its political and military presence in North Asia." Russell Hsiao, the editor of China Brief for the Jamestown Foundation, a nonprofit think-tank concentrating on Eurasia and China, reported last year that the Rajin port does not pose a challenge to U.S. interests. But he added that "as the Chinese military continues to modernize and its interests expand, this dynamic will have far-reaching implications for the United States, Japan and South Korea, and the broader region as a whole." Not everyone is convinced that Chinese efforts at Rajin will work. Dean Cheng, a China expert at the Heritage Foundation, said Rajin could turn out to be a bust like some past ventures in North Korea. He was dubious about reports of Chinese troops in Rajin. "There's no doubt that China would like to move into the area," Cheng said. It would "be a pretty clear challenge to both Seoul and Washington." Posted by: Steve White 2011-02-22 |
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