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Sources: Iranian former defense minister in Israeli jail
[Ma'an] Former Iranian deputy defense minister Ali Riza Asghari has been jugged in Israel since his abduction by the Mossad in 2006, sources told Ma'an.

The sources said Israeli authorities had imposed a gag order on the country's media forbidding them from reporting details of the case.

Iranian officials and Asghari's family have accused Israel's Mossad of abducting the former cabinet minister, who disappeared during a visit to Turkey in December 2006.
Bummer. I thought we had him. Still, if not us, Israel is a good alternative...at the moment perhaps better.
Shortly after Asghari's disappearance, a senior US official told The Washington Post that the Iranian had defected and was providing Western intelligence services with information on links between Hezbullies and Iran.

In March 2009, a former German Defense Ministry official also said Asghari had defected, and that he was providing information on Iran's nuclear program.

Iranian news sites reported in November 2009 that Asghari was being held in an Israeli prison. At the time, Israel's Foreign Ministry declined to comment.

Journalist Richard Silverstein reported in December 2010 that Asghari was found dead in his cell in Israel's Ayalon prison.
God took him in custody? Bet he's not enjoying that questioning process...
Silverstein cited reports by the Israeli news site Ynet and the Israeli daily Haaretz that a security prisoner had did away with himself while in solitary confinement in Ayalon prison. Ynet cited a gag order in its report, and the news was later removed from the site.

A source close to Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak revealed that the dear departed prisoner was Asghari, Silverstein said.
Based on the above, what probability would we assign to the the likelihood the unnamed suicide is actually our Iranian? Show your work for extra credit.

Posted by: Fred 2011-05-10
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=322250