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Flash: What, Me Pessimistic?
h/t Gates of ViennaSince last February I have predicted that the Muslim Brotherhood would win elections in Egypt. People have thought me very pessimistic. Now the votes are starting to come in and its much worse than I thought. But my prediction that the Brotherhood and the other Islamists would gain a slight majority seems to have been fulfilled and then some. According to most reports the Brotherhood is scoring at just below 40 percent all by itself. Why worse? For two reasons: First, the votes we now have come from the most urban areas of the country. If there are Facebook sophisticates theyre going to be in Cairo and Alexandria. If the moderates do that bad in the big cities, whats going to happen in the villages up the Nile? If the fascist party came in first in some European countries Social Democratic districts you know you are in trouble. The Brotherhood came in first in Cairo and Alexandria. Think about that. Of course there are millions of migrants from rural areas in those places but thats also where the middle class, such as it is, lives. Second, the moderate parties didnt even come in second they came in third or close to it. The Salafiststhat is people who are even more radical than the Muslim Brotherhoodcame in second. That they did that well is a surprise. That they did that well without bumping the Brotherhood down a notch is really shocking. Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2011-12-02 |
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