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Anti-EU party predicted to take third place in UKâs European elections
...and is only 5 points behind (second-placed) Labour. If the traditional third party (the Lib Dems) is pushed aside by a single-issue UK-out-of-the-EU group, this is going to send shockwaves far and wide. UKIP homepage.Voters in next monthâs European elections could shock the political establishment by giving the United Kingdom Independence Party more seats than the Liberal Democrats, a poll suggests today. A YouGov survey for The Telegraph indicates that UKIP, which is committed to British withdrawal from the European Union, is ahead of the Lib Dems among those who are "very likely" to vote. The European elections traditionally return more right-of centre politicos than do national elections. The reason being, those who take their politics seriously vote all the time, those who donât really understand it all only bother turning up at the polling station for the big ones. Itâs also a good opportunity for protest voting... According to this measure, which can be more reliable, particularly when turnout is low, the Conservatives are on 31 points, Labour 23 points, UKIP 18 points and the Lib Dems 15 points. See above. UKIP could win more than a dozen seats if these figures are repeated in the combined European, local and London mayoral and assembly elections on June 10. Such a result, relegating the Lib Dems to fourth place, would be a humiliation for their leader, Charles Kennedy, and would send shockwaves through Westminster, where the three main parties support EU membership and often dismiss those arguing for withdrawal as extremists. When all voters are considered, regardless of their likelihood of turning out, the Conservatives are still ahead, on 28 points, with Labour just behind on 27. The Lib Dems are on 18 points and UKIP is in fourth place on 14 points. The YouGov survey shows that voters differentiate between European and local elections. In the latter, UKIPâs poll standing is in single figures. Many of those questioned would also vote differently in a general election, with 36 per cent choosing the Conservatives, 33 Labour, 19 Lib Dem and only four per cent UKIP. Roger Knapman, the former Tory MP for Stroud who leads UKIP, welcomed the poll, which he said demonstrated the way the public was turning against the EU. "For the first time most people want us to get out of the European Union and renegotiate a common market, which is what we wanted in the first place," said Mr Knapman, who was a whip in John Majorâs administration. That attitude is strenghtening, not diminishing. Anecdotally, I know of a fair few voters who are considering voting UKIP in the coming elections, as the mainstream parties are increasingly out of step with feelings on the street. Euro federalism is very unpopular in the UK. If the Tories went Euro-sceptic (in a sane way) at the next election, theyâd walk it.... Although UKIP won three seats in the 1999 European elections, with seven per cent of the vote, the main parties have largely treated it as an irrelevance. That would change drastically if it was to overhaul the Lib Dems. All three parties would come under pressure to reconsider their positions on Europe, and Tony Blair might have to rethink his Many will be from your flock, Howard. "What Iâm clear [about] is that our vision for the future of Europe is the right vision, a vision in which we are there, taking part, arguing our corner, but also arguing for a more flexible Europe." Commenting on the Telegraph poll, a Labour official said: "Even if it is right that the Tories are on 31 points, then thatâs a lead of eight points. "Thatâs exactly the same lead they had five years ago. It shows theyâve made no progress at all." Long Live Spin! The Tories won the 1999 European elections convincingly, partly because the turnout was only 24 per cent. Labour supporters were disproportionately likely to stay at home. This year turnout is likely to be higher, helped by all-postal voting in some regions and because other elections are being held on the same day. But the YouGov poll suggests that percentage turnout is still only likely to be in the 30s, which is why the "very likely to vote" polling figures could turn out to be more reliable than the "all voter" ones. Posted by: Bulldog 2004-05-24 |
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