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Thoughts About Probability, Western Mistakes, and Moslem Perfection
From KhilafahMany of us were taught at school that the branch of mathematics known as probability theory was the science of gamblers. .... These principles of probability have now pervaded all aspects of life. Probability theory has gone from the smoke filled rooms of the poker player to the market place, oil production, manufacturing, shipping and even the health care industry. Health care is an interesting case .... the medical risk assessment is big business, as the North American male population are prepared to spend big bucks on knowing their long- and short-term health predictions. Diagnostic kits and tests to predict are a lucrative business. These come in the form of home cholesterol and blood pressure testing kits as well as laboratory and hospital based methods. The absolute life span of a human being cannot be predicted using a blood spot test on a strip of plastic. Basically they are getting ripped off, but this doesnât stop them spending. ... Investments and markets trends are predicted based on models of probability. These predictions affect employment, manufacturing and production, import and export, foreign investment, loans and credit agreements and almost every element of the modern day economy. As with health care, there are vast amounts of money to be made merely by applying mathematical models without substance. .... In 2001 Americans wagered $57 billion dollars on lotteries, $18 billion on horses and dogs, $592 billion in casinos, and $150 billion on other forms gambling. .... If Western society is sincere in its adherence to scientific ideas and enlightened philosophy how does it explain the fact the people en mass throw away their money chasing a dream, with next to no chance of it being realised. Perhaps there is a simple explanation; greed. This emotion can push rational people to do irrational things, especially when they are being egged on to do so. .... The West is proud of the enlightened philosophers, their renaissance artisans and their rational scientists. All of these works are worth a hill of beans in light of the irrational culture of fear that is cultivated among the common people of the West. Americans are told to be scared of their own shadow, with regards to those evil terrorists that are about to pounce and destroy all that they cherish. Engendering fear of the terrorist threat is the political lifeblood of politicians such as Blair, Bush and Berlusconi et al. Instilling this concept of fear of Muslims in the people was helped significantly by the image of approximately 3,000 people dying live on cable news network back in September 2001. However horrific those scenes were, one would of thought that ârationalâ Americans would have the capacity to put things into perspective. If they were to apply the techniques of cold calculated risk assessments, they would see that the actual number of Americans dieing in a terrorist attack on American soil in the year 2000 were zero, as was the case for 2002 and 2003. Even in the year 2001 the probability of dieing in an attack was 1 in 100,000. .... So the average American should be more scared of himself or his fellow American taking his life rather than some foreign terrorists. .... The other big killer, that seems to be continually over looked when it comes to international politics, is the old enemy the automobile. 1.2 million people die and over 50 million people are permanently disabled from traffic crashes worldwide each year. .... So who should the average American fear most a Muslim with a boarding pass for a domestic flight or his buddy swigging Bud behind the wheel of a Buick. You do the math! The western way of life is underpinned by a contradiction, statistics and risk assessment on the one hand and superstition on the other. This results in an inability to conceptualise issues. .... The people then congratulate themselves by believing they have diversity of opinion and have true freedom of expression. In contrast Islam has a coherent and consistent philosophy of life, and a common source of law to govern our affairs i.e. the Quran and Sunnah. We do not allow probability theory to affect the laws that we live our lives by. We do not allow politicians to use probabilities to mould public opinion. Islam does not require us to base our actions on fatalistic fantasies nor to become slaves of risk assessment and predictions. We merely follow the divine law, Shara. This law is followed whilst we still acknowledge that Allah (Subhanahu wa taâala) is fully aware of actions and events past present and future. We place emphasis on what we should do, in legal terms, rather than philosophising about what may or may not befall us. Whatever does happen to us happens only with the will of Allah. ... The issue of knowing what action to do in a particular situation depends not on pondering on our fate, but on seeking out a law extracted from the sacred texts of Islam. A verse of the Quran, a hadith or even an incident from the lives of the sahaba are all better guides for life than probability theory and mathematical models of risk. Posted by: Mike Sylwester 2004-06-01 |
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