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Foreign Policy In 'Chaos'
Defence and foreign relations experts discuss ties between US and Pakistain in a conference in Islamabad

As state institutions refuse to admit their roles in the recent foreign policy fiascos, the situation can only be explained with one word: chaos. Participants of a recent dialogue in Islamabad said the parliament's demand from the world super power to kneel before Pakistain is over-ambitious and unrealistic, and there are various shades of opinions and tactics in Pakistain that lack coherence and consistency.

"The blockade of NATO
...the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. A single organization with differing goals, equipment, language, doctrine, and organization....
supply routes for six months in reaction to the Salala attack is ridiculous," former foreign secretary Riaz Khokhar said last week, at a Jinnah Institute sponsored policy debate on "Re-evaluating Pak-US Relations". "Such foreign policy issues should not be dragged for too long," he said.

"The decision (of blocking NATO supplies) after the Salala incident was a bold but unsustainable step," said Tanvir Ahmed Khan, also a former foreign secretary. "The situation is likely to deteriorate," he said.

"The parliamentary recommendations on Pak-US relations are very harsh, ambitious and undoable," said defence expert Gen (r) Talat Masood, speaking at the same event.

The participants agreed that public sentiments must not impede the formulation and implementation of a dispassionate foreign policy, based on the national interests.

What Morgenthau taught, Jervis preached and Kissinger practiced, the neo-realism based American foreign policy allows little space for emotions and sentiments. Hans J Morgenthau says: "The rational requirements of good foreign policy cannot from the outset count on the support of a public opinion whose preferences are emotional rather than rational."

Ties between Pakistain and the US have worsened over the last year. After a spate of issues like the arrest and repatriation of Raymond Davis, drone attacks, Operation Geronimo, the Salala attack, conviction of CIA aide Dr Shakeel Afridi, and aid restrictions by the US politicians against Pakistain, mutual ties have reached their lowest ebb.

"The drone attacks are not stopping anytime soon. Our strangely rigid stance has created a very difficult situation for us," said Khokhar. He said the mistrust between the armed forces and intelligence agencies of the two countries was aggravating the situation.

Polls in the United States show a majority Americans do not approve of Pakistain, and vice versa. State institutions probably have similar feelings. In recent years, hawks in the CIA and Pentagon view every Pak move with suspicion. The pro-Pakistain State Department seems to have failed to resist the pressure they were exerting on Pakistain.

Khokhar says nations with begging bowl cannot dictate their terms. In Pakistain's case, we cannot force the United States to make an apology over the Salala attack. "It doesn't make sense to bring the relationship to a standstill. There is a need to move beyond seeking apology and aim to work for a new working relationship."

Tanvir Ahmed Khan was more apprehensive about Pakistain's diminishing role in so-called Afghanistan Endgame.

It was expected that Pakistain would not be invited to the conference in Chicago to decide the future of NATO in Afghanistan. The invitation was extended fairly late, but the harshness of tones did not subside throughout the conference.

"It's a mutually constrained game, wherein Pakistain has some big stakes," he said. He assumed the political government in Pakistain would have been comfortable dealing with the United States if there was no pressure from the military establishment to make an unreasonably firm stance.

Gen Masood said the two-year rollercoaster ride of Pak-US relationship was taking a nosedive. He claimed the United States wanted to build a new democratic Afghanistan and it seemed Pakistain was not prepared to offer the support required.
They've been undermining since the 1990s. That counts as negative support, right?
He sounded pragmatic in saying that it would not matter if Pakistain had long-term strategic or indefinite transactional relationships with the United States. "It doesn't matter at all when the choices are hard or limited."

He said the recommendations by Pak parliament, which in fact are a long list of demands from the United States, were not doable. But he also underlined foreign relations are a two-way street.

Responding to a question, Khokhar didn't rule out the possibility of the two countries working together after the Afghanistan endgame, if the United States was serious in containing China and Iran. Pakistain may become useful again.

Khan said both the civilian government and military establishment were reluctant to accept the responsibility of flaws in the country's India and Afghan policy. "As a result, the political government has bruised, while the army too has lost some of its say in such matters," he added.

The experts were uncertain who was in-charge of engaging with the United States. Traditionally, the GHQ had the final say in defining the mode and scope of engagement with the US. But not any more.

"It's a total chaos here. We don't know who is controlling the foreign policy (of Pakistain)," concluded Khokhar, who was a known hawk when heading the Foreign Office during Gen Musharraf's regime.

A recent issue between Pakistain and the US is the conviction in Pakistain of Dr Shakeel Afridi, who helped the CIA find the late Osama bin Laden
... who no longer exists...
. Dr Afridi has sympathisers in the US.

Recently, conservative Senator Paul Rand from the State of Kentucky who heads the Tea Party Movement vowed to move a bill in next Senate session seeking American citizenship for Dr Afridi.
It seems the Democratic Party is not alone in being unable to conceive of a truly self-organized, grassroots political movement. This is the second time in as many days I've seen Senator Paul accused of running the Tea Party. At least the savants at The Friday Times understand it is a movement rather than a party, which is a start.
Dr Afridi has been locked up in bad boy-infested Beautiful Downtown Peshawar Central Jail after a dubious trial under British-era Frontier Crimes Regulations. Most of the Islamic fascisti he shares the jail with are pro-Osama, and he is at a serious risk.

Posted by: trailing wife 2012-06-02
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=345789