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U.S. Intelligence Report Says Islamist Terrorism 'Could End by 2030'

Most anything could happen. The question is, what is the probability?

[CNSNews] The wave of Islamist terrorism is receding and "could end by 2030," according to a new long-term assessment by the U.S. intelligence community.

The greying of the Ummah as birth rates continue their precipitous drop since the 1970s should have an impact. Also the killing of so many whose first impulse is to violence, first attacking the unbelievers in Afghanistan and Iraq, but second among themselves as the Arab Spring turns into bloody revolution, and all the various factions of Muslim fanaticism tear and claw at each other when they cannot reach further... But will the call to jihad really succumb to a rising tide of age and despair? What say you, O Rantburgers?

In support of that projection, the study released on Monday said the view of America as the "great enemy" was becoming less appealing, resulting in part from the departure of U.S. forces from Iraq and Afghanistan.

See full report here.

It also cited political upheavals in the Arab world, and said that a new generation of young Moslems may be less interested in the narrative of a "conflict between fundamental values."

"Several circumstances are ending the current Islamist phase of terrorism, which suggest that as with other terrorist waves -- the Anarchists in the 1880s and 90s, the postwar anti-colonial terrorist movements, the New Left in 1970s -- the recent religious wave is receding and could end by 2030," said the National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2030 report.

Since 1996 the NIC, which reports to the director of national intelligence, has prepared a trends analysis roughly every four years for the incoming president. This time it discussed the draft with experts in almost 20 countries, and the views of those "interlocutors" are reflected in the final 166-page document.

Despite the upbeat assessment on the likelihood of an end to Islamist terrorism, the report conceded that terror would probably not die out altogether.

Some al-Qaeda affiliates and groups like Hezbollah may continue to pose threats, and states like Iran and Pakistain could continue to use terror groups as proxies, it said.

In the years to come, the study said, Death Eaters may focus less on trying to inflict mass casualties and more on causing widespread economic chaos by targeting critical cyber systems.

A headline projection in Global Trends 2030 is an end to the post-Cold War "unipolar" order, with power shifting away from a single "hegemonic power" towards "networks and coalitions in a multipolar world."

"By 2030, no country -- whether the U.S., China, or any other large country -- will be a hegemonic power," it said, but predicted the U.S. would probably remain "first among equals."