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Any Solution to Syria?
Well, maybe we could nudge that asteroid that way?SHOULD the U.S. intervene to stop the bloodshed in Syria? I find myself torn between four different perspectives from New Delhi, Baghdad, Tel Aviv and the U.N. Some Israeli generals are starting to realize that if Syria is a fight to the death it could pose as great a strategic threat to Israel as Irans nuclear program. If Syria disintegrates into another Afghanistan on Israels border it would be an untamed land, with jihadists, chemical weapons and surface-to-air missiles all freely floating about. Can that collapse be avoided? From Washington, some hoped that by quickly toppling the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Damascus, the West and the Sunnis could flip Syria from the Iranian-Soviet orbit to the Sunni-Saudi-American orbit. Im dubious. I doubt that Syria can be flipped in one piece; it will break apart in the air into Sunni and Alawite regions. And, if we did manage to flip Syria, Iran would try to flip predominantly Shiite Iraq and Bahrain into its camp. Some Arab diplomats at the U.N. argue, though, that there is a middle way, but it would require the U.S. to lead: First, mobilize the Security Council to pass a resolution calling for the creation of a transitional government in Syria with full powers and with equal representation of Alawites and Sunni rebels. If the Russians could be persuaded to back such a resolution (not easy), it could break the stalemate inside Syria, because many regime loyalists would see the writing on the wall and abandon Assad. The stick would be to tell the Russians that if they dont back such a resolution, the U.S. would start sending weapons to the secular/moderate rebels. Its the Middle East, Jake. If you will the ends, youd better will the means. You cant change the politics unless you say youll stay for a hundred years, insists Akbar. But no one wants to play empire anymore. In which case, he argues, its always best not to stay long in any of these countries five months, not five years. Five years, says Akbar, is just long enough for people to hate you, but not fear or respect you, let alone change their long-held ways. Posted by: Glenmore 2013-02-10 |
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