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Unchecked threat: North Waziristan attack
[Dawn] THE suicide kaboom on a security check post in North Wazoo on Saturday that left nearly 20 dead may at first appear to be just another grim incident in a festering insurgency, but there is an emerging facet: the possible rise of new splinter groups. The bombing of the Beautiful Downtown Peshawar
...capital of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (formerly known as the North-West Frontier Province), administrative and economic hub for the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan. Peshawar is situated near the eastern end of the Khyber Pass, convenient to the Pak-Afghan border. Peshawar has evolved into one of Pakistan's most ethnically and linguistically diverse cities, which means lots of gunfire.
judicial complex, the attack on the Jalozai IDP camp and now the attack in North Waziristan have not been claimed by the TTP, or even claimed at all. The Aafia Siddiqui
...American-educated Pak cognitive neuroscientist who was convicted of assault with intent to murder her U.S. interrogators in Afghanistan. In September 2010, she was sentenced to 86 years in jug after a three-ring trial. Siddiqui, using the alias Fahrem or Feriel Shahin, was one of six alleged al-Qaeda members who bought $19 million worth of blood diamonds in Liberia immediately prior to 9-11-01. Since her incarceration Paks have taken her to their heart and periodically erupt into demonstrations, while the government tries to find somebody to swap for her...
Brigade's claim of responsibility for the Peshawar judicial complex bombing is also shrouded in mystery: is the group real, and who are its protagonists? What this could indicate is that the toxic brew of militancy in North Waziristan is undergoing changes again, with alliances breaking and forming anew, and when that happens the outcome is usually even more lethal than what came before.

At this point the choice is between getting lost in the minutiae of sub-groups within the Taliban and why they are possibly in a state of flux again, and zooming out and asking what the state is doing about the overall problem: the fact that North Waziristan is the single greatest immediate threat to Pakistain's internal security. The American demand to 'do more' and go after the Haqqanis in North Waziristan has receded into the background. The US Ambassador to Pakistain recently said in Peshawar that North Waziristan is a domestic security issue, not an international one as the US insisted for many years. If the ultimate fear was that going after the 'bad Taliban' in North Waziristan would also suck the state into fighting the favoured Haqqanis because of American pressure, then that pressure is no more -- and yet North Waziristan's sprawling bad turban complex remains unmolested.

With an election on the way and no government in place, the optics of a military operation in North Waziristan at this moment would certainly look bad. Additionally, going after the Taliban in their greatest stronghold with elections to be held could lead to unmanageable blowback. Then again, the Taliban have made clear that they consider democracy un-Islamic and that several parties are in their cross hairs, meaning that violence can be expected anyway. Ultimately, there is no ideal time to deal with the greatest internal security threat the country has seen since the break-up of Pakistain. More than the threat itself, then, the paralysis among those who are supposed to fight it is terrifyingly worrying.

Posted by: Fred 2013-03-27
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=364956