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Saturday review: two good analyses of the Korea situation
by Steve WhiteSpook 86 at In From the Cold writes at Closer to the Brink about what might happen and what the calculations are in various capitals. This analyses emphasizes the danger present in allowing decisions to drift, as Champ is currently doing in the White House. Seoul and Tokyo might decide they have to become more independent in their response, and therein lies danger. Robert Farley (who blogs at Information Dissemination and other places) writes at TheDiplomat that if war comes, it won't be accidental: wars happen because policymakers, making good or bad decisions, want them. He reviews the potential scenarios of action on both sides and concludes that "a full war seems exceedingly unlikely, as none of the combatants stand to benefit." Both articles are recommended. My own take right now is this: war will come if Pudgy puts himself into a position in which war is the least unattractive of the options available to him. He's a weak, vain, cruel man, I think, and such men, particularly in a Stalinist regime, can't afford to lose face, not ever. Ordinarily in the past we let the North Koreans 'climb down' after an escalation. I'm not sure that will happen this time. I don't think war is likely, but I also don't see it as unthinkable. Posted by: Steve White 2013-04-13 |
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