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The morning after
[Dawn] THE votes have been cast and are now being counted. Whoever wins, we hope they are good for democracy, peace, the rule of law, growth and development: we hope they are good for Pakistain and Paks.

This election had a number of features that should be borne in mind going forward and will need further analysis and understanding.

The election campaign was very violent. It was not the political opponents who were going after each other, it was the anti-democratic forces of the Taliban that made it very hard for some parties, the Awami National Party (ANP), the Muttahida Qaumi Movement
...English: United National Movement, generally known as MQM, is the 3rd largest political party and the largest secular political party in Pakistain with particular strength in Sindh. From 1992 to 1999, the MQM was the target of the Pak Army's Operation Cleanup leaving thousands of urdu speaking civilians dead...
(MQM) and the PPP, to run their campaigns on the same scale as others.

Though the reasons were different and related more to nationalism, it was equally hard to campaign in Balochistan
...the Pak province bordering Kandahar and Uruzgun provinces in Afghanistan and Sistan Baluchistan in Iran. Its native Baloch propulation is being displaced by Pashtuns and Punjabis and they aren't happy about it...
. Will and should there be questions about the legitimacy and acceptability of election results under these circumstances?

Will what has happened in the campaign give impetus to all politicians to come together to address the menace posed by the Taliban? Will the winners take the lead in this? Or will the various parties remain as divided as ever on how to deal with the threat they have been witnessing? If they do remain as divided, the next five years and the next election will be even harder.

In Punjab, many 'politicians' before an election try to gauge which way the establishment is leaning and which party has a greater chance of winning. Then they try to get a ticket from that party. Party loyalty means little. Since parties also need 'electables', switching sides is encouraged. The idea is that one is able to get more done for oneself and for one's supporters, if one is in power. And a lot of the time it is clear, before elections, which party has greater chances.

But this time, especially for Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa
... formerly NWFP, still Terrorism Central...
, it was harder to predict the outcome between the PML-N and the Pakistain Tehrik-e-Insaf
...a political party in Pakistan. PTI was founded by former Pakistani cricket captain and philanthropist Imran Khan. The party's slogan is Justice, Humanity and Self Esteem, each of which is open to widely divergent interpretations....
(PTI). Hence the higher demand for party tickets from them. But interestingly a number of influential local politicians chose to contest elections as independent candidates. They have been promising supporters that if they win they will support the winning party and get benefits for their constituents that way.

Given that many people are predicting a 'split' mandate with none of the parties winning a majority, these independents could wield a lot of power -- heaven for those who contested as independents with the specific purpose of getting a price for their support post-victory. But how will this impact the politics of ideology, loyalty and political commitment remains to be seen.

The Election Commission of Pakistain (ECP) has strict and fairly stringent limits on how much a candidate can spend in an election. The idea of the limits is to reduce the role of money in politics and to make the playing field more even for candidates with different wealth and income levels and with varying abilities to elicit financial support. The limits were and are flouted, often quite flagrantly, but nonetheless there are limits and legal recourse is always available for aggrieved parties.

But this time it was the parties that went for massive advertising and not just individual candidates. The use of new and old media, and even mobile phones (I received three calls with recorded messages from Imran Khan
... aka Taliban Khan, who ain't the sharpest bulb on the national tree...
twice and one from the PTI candidate from the constituency where I live), for communication with constituents was unprecedented.

The PTI took the lead and was more savvy but other parties learnt and caught up fairly quickly. Even parties that could not campaign in the normal manner because of security issues could use these means of reaching out to their supporters. How will this change the politics of the country? Will future campaigns be even more virtual?

And are advertisements a substitute for direct contacts between potential representatives and their constituents?

Posted by: Fred 2013-05-13
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=368127