|
NYT: Impasse With Afghanistan Raises Prospect of Total U.S. Withdrawal in 2014
KABUL, Afghanistan -- The impasse, after a year of talks, has increased the prospect of what the Americans call the zero option -- complete withdrawal -- when the NATO combat mission concludes at the end of 2014. That is precisely the outcome they hoped to avoid in Afghanistan, after having engaged in a similarly problematic withdrawal from Iraq two years ago.Moreover, a complete withdrawal from Afghanistan could be far costlier than it was in Iraq. It would force European powers to pull their forces as well, risking a dangerous collapse in confidence among Afghans and giving a boost to the Taliban, which remain a potent threat. It could also jeopardize vital aid commitments. Afghanistan is decades away from self-sufficiency -- it currently covers only about 20 percent of its own bills, with the rest paid by the United States and its allies. "It is a practical truth," the administration official said, that without a deal, "our Congress would not likely follow through on the assistance promises we've made, nor would other partners." Two tough issues remain. The first is Afghanistan's insistence that the United States guarantee its security, much like any NATO ally, and the second is Mr. Karzai's refusal to allow American forces to keep searching in Afghanistan for operatives of Al Qaeda. Instead, he has proposed that the United States give its intelligence information to Afghan forces and let them do the searching, said Aimal Faizi, a spokesman for the president. American officials have rejected both Afghan proposals. The security pact is especially problematic, they say, because it could legally compel American forces to cross the border into Pakistan, resulting in an armed confrontation with an ally -- and a nuclear-armed power. "The deal is like 95 percent done," said another American official in Washington, "and both sides are holding out." 95% done? More like 33-1/3% Those are two BIG issues. The differences between the two sides are as much about perspectives as they are about the legalities of raids and bases and security arrangements. Afghanistan believes the threat posed by the Taliban is largely driven from Pakistan. In the American view, the Pakistani havens are but one facet of a conflict that is mainly internal. The bulk of the forces the US would like to leave in Afghanistan -- administration officials have said they would total 9,000 or less -- would train Afghan forces, which are already doing most of the fighting here. But the United States wants to keep using Special Operations forces to target the roughly 75 operatives that American commanders estimate remain in Afghanistan. "President Karzai says that has been happening for 12 years, and how come we cannot find them?" Mr. Faizi said. "How much longer will it continue? One year? Five years? Ten years?" At the rate the US has been going in Afghanistan, would you believe two hundred years? Posted by: Anguper Hupomosing9418 2013-10-05 |
| http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=377107 |