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Al Qaeda more dangerous than ever: US experts
 WASHINGTON: More than two and a half years after US commandos shot dead al Qaeda figurehead Osama bin Laden, the global extremist network is more dangerous than ever, American experts and counterterrorism officials warned this week.
But armed groups in Syria, Somalia, Yemen, Libya and West Africa have flocked to his banner and al Qaeda is rebuilding its influence and recruiting fighters across the region. Their leadership has been hit very hard, but this brand is still growing. And its growing from an increased number of safe havens, said retired US Marine Corps general James Mattis. Between 2010 and earlier this year, Mattis led US Central Command, in charge of prosecuting Washingtons long war against extremists in the Middle East, Southwest Asia and the Horn of Africa. Now he has hung up his uniform, but admits the war is far from over, warning: The congratulations that we heard two years ago on the demise of al Qaeda were premature and are now discredited. Speaking at the Jamestown Foundations annual conference on terrorism in Washington, Mattis said: Al Qaeda is resilient, they adapted. We have to think strategically before we act, not only act tactically. Bin Ladens death in May 2011 triggered a wave of optimism that the United States and its allies might have broken the back of the militant threat, but today officials here are under no illusions. Since the audacious commando strike that took out al Qaedas apparently largely symbolic chieftain, the black banner of his movement has been raised more widely than ever. Militants inspired by or linked to bin Ladens armed struggle have sacked a US consulate in Libya and stormed a shopping mall in Kenya. Attacks are on the rise once again in Iraq, al Qaeda has reportedly begun operating in Egypts Sinai Desert and violent groups are now the most powerful elements in the rebel coalition fighting in the Syrian civil war. Bruce Hoffman, director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies at Georgetown University, told the Jamestown conference that collapsing states in the Middle East were opening up space for extremists. The oxygen that al Qaeda depends on is access to sanctuaries and safe haven. And unfortunately over the past two years it gained greater access to more ungoverned spaces, he said. The success of the attack in Nairobi and earlier in Mumbai suggests that this groups have now within their capacity the ability to fulfil one of Bin Ladens last commands or operational desires, which was to stage Mumbai-style attacks in Europe. For the experts gathered in Washington, Syrias civil war which has attracted militant volunteers from Muslim communities in Europe as well as Arab countries has worked greatly to al Qaedas advantage. The al Qaeda-affiliated groups have created an alliance which disposes of 45,000 guerrilla fighters across the country, said David Kilcullen, a renowned counterinsurgency expert who has advised US forces in the field. Its a very significant number, almost twice as many as we see in terms of Taliban fighters in Afghanistan, he said. Were seeing a recovery on all fronts for al Qaeda. For Bruce Riedel, a three-decade CIA veteran who now works for the Brookings Institution, al Qaedas resurgence is proof that it has managed to ride out and ultimately profit from the revolts that have roiled the Middle East and North Africa. Al Qaedas narrative was challenged in 2011 by the Arab Spring. Peaceful demonstrations succeeded in toppling dictators. Al Qaedas narrative was at risk. Terror had not produced change, Twitter had, Riedel said. But today, everything is different. Al Qaedas narrative is validated in 2013, most notably in Egypt. The counterrevolution has succeeded, the army has overthrown the elected government. For those who want to join al Qaedas movement, events in Cairo, in Damascus have validated what they long said: Jihad is the only solution to the problem of change in the Muslim world today. Posted by: Steve White 2013-12-16 |
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