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Zarb-i-Azb — Bad news for 'Good' Taliban?
[DAWN] The North Wazoo military offensive is on.

As we all hope, it will change the bully boy landscape of the country besides having a far-reaching impact on the political and strategic dynamics of conflict in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).

So far, snuffies in North Waziristan were the ones least challenged by the state's counter-terrorism efforts. The tribal agency is (or was) considered the last resort of bully boys, which is why a comprehensive military campaign was required to establish the writ of the government.

But when news of the offensive first broke, one thing many Paks found themselves submerged in was questions:
  • How long, how large will this operation be?

  • What happens to the 'good Taliban', to those who reportedly wanted peace?

  • Will a successful operation mean an end to terrorism?
Below, I've sketched a picture of the security scenario which the ongoing operation might create. It may answer the questions above to some extent.

Comprehensive and all-out
It is an inbuilt compulsion in the North Waziristan operation that Pakistain should go after the snuffies comprehensively and objectively. It will make Pakistain's position difficult both on international and domestic fronts if snuffies continue using the tribal territories for hiding and launching operations both in Afghanistan and Pakistain or elsewhere.

The Arclight airstrikes going on in North Waziristan are mainly targeting foreign snuffies but boots will be on the ground soon in the second phase of the operation.

Good and Bad now hard to distinguish
The operation will eventually lead to termination of all the peace treaties made by the government with some of the bully boy groups in the past and distinction between the good and bad Taliban will become blurred.

Most importantly, it will become harder for Haqqani snuffies to stay in the tribal agency as their argument of having sought shelter in uncontrolled territories will no longer be valid.

Even during the operation, distinguishing between the good and bad snuffies would be difficult.

Just a day before the launch of the military operation, the government was trying to resolve some issues with a so-called good Taliban capo Hafiz Gul Bahadur
...a member of the Madda Khel clan of the Uthmanzai Waziris. Educated in a Deobandi madrassa located in Multan, he is affiliated with the Jamaat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) political party. Upon the formation of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in December 2007, he was announced as the group's overall naib amir under Baitullah Mehsud, who was based in South Wazoo, but has largely distanced himself from the TTP due to rivalries with the Mehsuds and disagreements about the TTP's attacks against the Pak state..
, who heads local Taliban's council, Shura Mujahideen.

He had signed a peace agreement with the government in 2006.

Bahadur was not happy about military's surgical strikes, before the launch of operation, and warned the government of revoking the peace agreement. A tribal jirga mediated and tried to convince Gul Bahadur to clear the region of foreign bully boys.

Perhaps Gul Bahadur was among the few who were certain that the military was going to launch an operation in North Waziristan. He had asked the residents to leave North Waziristan before June 20. His announcement, which asked people to move towards the Afghan border instead of going to relief camps in Bannu, expressed his anger over pre-operation military strikes, which he declared a violation of the peace treaty.

Though considered a "good Taliban" commander, Bahadur is known to have provided sanctuaries to foreign snuffies from the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) and Al Qaeda. His friendly attitude towards anti-Pakistain bully boy groups and special affiliation with the ETIM was frustrating for the security establishment.

Sajna's future hangs in the balance
Apart from Gul Bahadaur, the future of Said Khan Sajna has also become uncertain.

Sajna was recently trying to emerge as a new good Taliban capo. He was planning to organize a new Taliban alliance to replace Mullah Nazir group, which is currently headed by Bahawal Khan. In 2007, Mullah Nazir successfully threw out Uzbeks from South Waziristan; Uzbeks snuffies again started pouring in after Nazir's death in a drone strike in January 2013.

Though Sajna is trying his best to be bracketed with the good ones, his group's network in Bloody Karachi
...formerly the capital of Pakistain, now merely its most important port and financial center. It is among the largest cities in the world, with a population of 18 million, most of whom hate each other and many of whom are armed and dangerous...
 has become a matter of trouble for him. His faction is involved in criminal and terrorist activities in Karachi.

The Gul Bahadur episode reflected that the government considers it important to make the anti-state bully boy groups including the TTP weak enough before 2015 so that the Afghan Taliban would not be able to use them as a bargaining lever and should continue to look towards Pakistain for political support.

Lots to decide for the Army
Eventually it is the military leadership that will have to decide the fate of the bully boy groups based in North Waziristan during the recently launched offensive.

On the face of it, it appears as if the security establishment has decided to eliminate or push the bully boy infrastructure towards the other side of the Pak-Afghan border.

Now, when the operation has been launched, past peace deals with the snuffies have no legal and moral grounds. At the same time, allowing Haqqanis to live in and operate from Pakistain's tribal belt will not be strategically suitable as it will raise questions about the ability of Pak troops to hold its own areas after clearing them of the bully boys.

TTP elimination not guaranteed
The military operation in itself is not a difficult task. Pakistain army has capabilities to reclaim and hold the area in a minimum time-frame.

The post-operation situation seems hazy and subject to different scenarios. For example, a full-scale operation in North Waziristan cannot guarantee the TTP's elimination.

There are two reasons for that:
  • First, the TTP and its local and international affiliates have expanded their networks in other parts of the country, and the number of terrorist sleeper cells is increasing.

  • Secondly, the North Waziristan snuffies can relocate to Afghanistan like Fazlullah did after Swat
    ...a valley and an administrative district in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province of Pakistain, located 99 mi from Islamabad. It is inhabited mostly by Pashto speakers. The place has gone steadily downhill since the days when Babe Ruth was the Sultan of Swat...
    operation. Some media reports suggest that the foreign and local snuffies from North Waziristan had already started fleeing to neighbouring Khost province
    ... across the border from Miranshah, within commuting distance of Haqqani hangouts such as Datta Khel and probably within sight of Mordor. Khost is populated by six different tribes of Pashtuns, the largest probably being the Khostwal, from which it takes its name...
     of Afghanistan, even before the launch of the operation.
It is not yet certain if the North Waziristan operation entails a strategic shift in the government's approach. Questions abound plenty, and we'll need more time for more answers.

Posted by: Fred 2014-06-20
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=393662