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Libya's Fate Difficult to Predict, Analysts Say

[VOA News] As Libya slides deeper into political and military chaos, uncertainty reigns and analysts say it's difficult to anticipate how things will unfold.

Some say Libya needs regional or broader foreign involvement; others say that would only aggravate the situation.

In mid-August, Libya's ambassador to Egypt, Mohammed Jibril, called for international intervention, saying "Libya is unable to protect its institutions, its airports and oil fields."

Last week, the country's ambassador to the United Nations
...an idea whose time has gone...
, Ibrahim Dabbashi, asked the U.N. Security Council to disarm the warring factions. But the council decided against sending a U.N. peacekeeping force to Libya.

Two military coalitions are competing for governmental control. Their power struggles have almost paralyzed the country, leaving it with two de facto parliaments and two prime ministers.

One coalition, Libya Dawn
...aka Fajr Libya, the Islamist operation launched to counter that of General Khalifa Haftar (Operation Dignity). It is made up of the Libya Shield militia (Misrata and Moslem Brotherhood), Libya Revolutionaries Operations Room (Moslem Brotherhood), and Tripoli Brigade (close to Abdul Hakim Belhaj, head of Al-Watan party). Financing and moral support come from Turkey and Qatar...
, represents Islamist groups including the hardline Ansar al-Sharia
...a Salafist militia which claims it is not part of al-Qaeda, even though it works about the same and for the same ends. There are groups of the same name in Libyaand Yemen, with the Libyan versions currently most active. Tunisia's Shabaab al-Tawhid started out an Ansar al-Sharia and changed its name in early 2014. It still uses the old name now and then, probably because the stationery's not all used up and the web site hasn't expired yet...
h and militias from the coastal city of Misrata. The other coalition includes supporters of former dictator Muammar Qadaffy
... who had more funny outfits than Louis XIV...
, ousted in 2011. It's led by retired General Khalifa Haftar
... served in the Libyan army under Muammar Qadaffy, and took part in the coup that brought Qadaffy to power in 1969. He became a prisoner of war in Chad in 1987. While held prisoner, he and his fellow officers formed a group hoping to overthrow Qadaffy. He was released around 1990 in a deal with the United States government and spent nearly two decades in the United States, gaining US citizenship. In 1993, while living in the United States, he was convicted in absentia of crimes against the Jamahiriya and sentenced to death. Haftar held a senior position in the anti-Qadaffy forces in the 2011 Libyan Civil War. In 2014 he was commander of the Libyan Army when the General National Congress (GNC) refused to give up power in accordance with its term of office. Haftar launched a campaign against the GNC and its Islamic fundamentalist allies. His campaign allowed elections to take place to replace the GNC, but then developed into a civil war. Guess you can't win them all...
, an anti-Islamist.
Who also wasn't a Qadaffy supporter, at least not recently.
Retired General Sameh Seif Alyazal, director of Cairo's Algomhuria Center for Strategic Studies, said it's "very difficult, if not impossible now, to disarm more than 1,600 militias and gangs in Libya with millions of pieces of weapon and a variety of heavy weapons and missiles."

Seif Alyazal welcomed the Security Council's resolution to impose sanctions on militias and their political supporters who are fueling Libya's escalating war.

Egypt's former ambassador to Libya, Hany Khallaf, said stabilizing Libya will demand more international cooperation.

"Political and security arrangements are urgently required in Libya and it would take serious efforts from neighboring Arab countries, European and international efforts to be achieved," Khallaf said.

Egypt is committed to helping "the legitimate Libyan government in Tobruk" restore stability and extend its authority, according to Seif Alyazal. He said the two countries' chiefs of staff met to discuss military cooperation, and Egypt offered to train Libyan police and army units, while monitoring the borders to prevent turbans or weapons from crossing.

But Khallaf downplayed any significant role in Libyan politics for Egypt and its Gulf allies.

"Libyan Islamists reject any role by Egypt, Soddy Arabia
...a kingdom taking up the bulk of the Arabian peninsula. Its primary economic activity involves exporting oil and soaking Islamic rubes on the annual hajj pilgrimage. The country supports a large number of princes in whatcha might call princely splendor. When the oil runs out the rest of the world is going to kick sand in the Soddy national face...
or the United Arab Emirates for a settlement in Libya, due to their anti-Islamist positions," he said.

A recent report in the military journal Jane's Intelligence Review said the escalated fighting could yield one of several different scenarios. They include Islamist forces that "gradually expand their control over the country, leading to a high probability of Algerian or Egyptian intervention." Another possibility, Jane's said is that the government could consolidate its control of oil revenues and contain the Islamists in the east.

But if Islamists "succeed in isolating the Tobruk government and secure control of energy revenues," Jane's said, it could divide the more hardline factions and the Moslem Brotherhood, leading to "greater direct foreign military intervention from Algeria and Egypt to secure their respective borders."
Posted by: Fred 2014-09-08

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