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Lessons from Beslan
Just my opinion...Russia lost more people in the Beslan atrocity than were killed in the Bali bombings. They lost another 129 in the Nord Ost Theater attack a couple years ago. They've lost more in the various booms and shootouts within Chechnya and in its neighboring states and provinces. Fox News reports today that Putin as admitted Russia has been too soft on terrorism — there's no telling whether they're actually going to do something, or if he's just beating his breast in self-reproach. I've made the point here before that Russia's military in the Caucasus hasn't been up to snuff. It's a conglomeration of draftees and elite troops, and it doesn't seem from this distance as though intel is driving operations. The Russians invented the combined arms concept, they tested it, they exeercised it, but they don't do it well. You can't have effective military operations without tight integration of intelligence assets. Otherwise commanders are working blind. Even with intel integration, they'd still have a foot in a bucket. There are (or used to be) separate chains of command for OMON, Spetsnaz, and line units. That's 1968-era organization. We suffered from the same problems in Vietnam, and they suffered from similar problems — and even solved many of them — in Afghanistan. It looks from here like they've reverted, and I'm guessing that's due to the inertia built into their military structure. Their other significant problem is the fact that so much of their military is made up of draftees. Putin has said he's going to institute a professional military. He fired Kvanshin a couple months ago, removing an obstacle to military reform. 76th Airborne Division is supposed to be switching from conscripts to professionals and is due in Chechnya sometime this year, as of last report. It's not a process that's racing along, though. If they're going to accomplish anything, they've got to speed it up, and then they've got to tough it out through the shakedown period, when it's going to look like a bad idea. Once the bugs are out, there will be improvement. The most important thing I'm hoping Putin has learned is that Russia is being warred upon by one man: Shamil Basayev. Maskhadov is window dressing, providing the same "legitimate" face to the Chechens that the religious parties provide to the Pak jihadis or that Sinn Fein provides to the IRA. If Maskhadov was bumped off tomorrow, there would be another "president" of Chechnya. All the "brigades" in Chechnya seem to report to Basayev, not to Maskhadov, and Basayev doesn't report to him. At best, he sometimes consults with him. That also goes for the legions of Arabs flocking to the Caucasus to make their bones. The Arabian money filters through Arab hands, but ends up in Basayev's pocket. It was Basayev who pioneered the peculiarly brutal methods of the Chechen thugs: In 1995 he and a force of about 100 men stormed a hospital in Budennovsk, taking 2000 people hostage. Ryadus Salikhin, the Black Widows, Islamic International Brigade, all lead back to him. He's the kingpin, and even whatever al-Ghamdi is handling the money nowadays gets his marching orders from him. Why? Basayev's been successful. That 1995 raid led to negotiations, and the negotiations led to Chechnya being cut loose, effectively, from Russia. They couldn't keep it, of course, but that's mainly because they couldn't control their thuggish inclinations. Once they had it, they had to carry jihad to Dagestan and Ingushetia, and they had to send "warnings" to the Russers in the form of exploding apartment buildings. Basayev is to Putin as Osama bin Laden is to the USA. He's the man they have to catch or kill, and preferably the latter. I made the remark yesterday that the "pinheads" of the world will decry Russian brutality regardless of what Putin does on response to the attack. Some people took exception to that remark. But I stand by it: If he does nothing, he'll be characterized as week, all show and no substance. If he does anything other than nothing, to include continuing the present inept approach, involving being reactive to the daily local outrages of the Basayev's army, he'll be described as over-reacting and brutality. I'm hoping he'll realize this and be properly ruthless in the hunt for Basayev, the while rebuilding Chechnya as they've tried on occasion to do. If it takes out wiping out an entire county to get Shamil, then the county should be wiped out, as long as they're sure they're going to get him. It's a matter of "pay me now or pay me later": carnage to take out the kingpin, or ongoing carnage while he remains alive. The corpse count is going to be lower with the former than with the latter. Posted by: Fred 2004-09-04 |
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