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Bush Will Bury Kerry
The Democrat will be lucky to exceed Michael Dukakis's share of the popular vote. BY BRENDAN MINITER For nearly four years now, we've been told this is a 50-50 nation, that red and blue America are so evenly divided that even a small misstep could swing this presidential election either way. The media may have their own reasons for sticking to the story line--drama is good for ratings, after all--but there's mounting evidence that the electorate is not nearly as evenly divided as it was in 2000; that come Nov. 2, newscasters are going to be putting a lot more red than blue on their electoral maps. I will make a prediction here: Mr. Kerry will be lucky to top the 45.7% of the popular vote Michael Dukakis got in 1988. Perhaps my prediction is buoyed by the euphoric Republicans who flooded this city last week. Indeed, from the convention floor to lavish after-parties, the Republicans I met carried with them the presumption that of course there will be a second Bush administration--although I must point out that in floating my theory, I couldn't find anyone who agreed with the spread, and that one reason for the confidence among conventioneers is the feeling that there has to be a second term. That if the party loses this election, the nation will lose the war on terror. That sense of urgency is only heightened by the fact that Mr. Kerry will have a few more opportunities to turn things around on Mr. Bush--at the debates, for example. And there's always a chance that bad news out of Iraq or a terrorist attack in America could knock the legs out from under the president's campaign. But of course, it is this sense of urgency that is helping put the Republicans over the top. The media may finally be catching up to the idea that the nation may have turned decidedly in Mr. Bush's favor. Coming out of the convention Time and Newsweek conducted separate polls, each of which found that the president had opened up an 11-point lead over Mr. Kerry. These surveys seem to have oversampled Republicans, but a new Gallup Poll puts Mr. Bush up by a still impressive seven points, 52% to 45%. Even as convention euphoria fades, there are plenty of reasons to disbelieve the "50-50 nation" story line: Posted by: Mark Espinola 2004-09-07 |
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