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Fighting in Helmand
[DAWN] TWO months after the fall of Kunduz reverberated around the region and internationally, another Afghan province is in trouble. Parts of Helmand...an Afghan province populated mostly by Pashtuns, adjacent to Injun country in Pak Balochistan... province are virtually under the control of the Afghan Taliban and it appears only a matter of time before a major district falls. The fighting appears to be following a familiar pattern. The Afghan state has been unable to prevent incremental gains by the Taliban, making the area vulnerable to a seemingly sudden and spectacular collapse. The reasons too appear to be familiar. Afghan cops are under-resourced and low on morale, while the assistance of the foreign fighting forces is too small to prevent a Taliban takeover. If provincial collapse or the fall of key districts does happen, the response may also look familiar: global alarm will lead to the government in Kabul ...the capital of Afghanistan. Home to continuous fighting from 1992 to 1996 between the forces of would-be strongman and Pak ISI/Jamaat-e-Islami sock puppet Gulbuddin Hekmayar and the Northern Alliance, a period which won Hek the title Most Evil Man in the Worldand didn't do much for the reputations of the Northern Alliance guys either.... , with the assistance of the US, assembling a force strong enough to beat back the Taliban, at least temporarily. But Helmand is not Kunduz. It is in the heart of the Taliban-influenced south Afghanistan, and not the distant north. Helmand also shares a border with Pakistain and as such could cause fresh tensions in the Pak-Afghan relationship. Curiously, the fighting in Helmand, and thus the continuing of the so-called fighting season deep into December, does not appear to have dampened talk of an early resumption of negotiations between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Nor does continuing uncertainty over the unity and cohesion of the Taliban appear to have impacted the insurgency; indeed, it seems to have grown only stronger and more potent. Talk and fight -- or perhaps, more accurately, fight and talk -- appears to be the new Taliban strategy, borrowed directly from the pages of the strategy that the US has been trying to get the Afghan government to implement in recent times. It must surely be worrying for the administration of President Ashraf Ghani ...former chancellor of Kabul University, now president of Afghanistan. Before returning to Afghanistan in 2002 he was a scholar of political science and anthropology. He worked at the World Bank working on international development assistance. As Finance Minister of Afghanistan between July 2002 and December 2004, he led Afghanistan's attempted economic recovery until the Karzais stole all the money. .. , and his partners and supporters inside and outside Afghanistan that the Taliban are mimicking state strategy better than the state itself is able to perform. The continuing Taliban onslaught will also likely further strain intra-administration and inter-institutional tensions in Afghanistan. One half of the national unity government is quite openly opposed to the other half's preference for a negotiated settlement with the Taliban and outreach to Pakistain. Meanwhile, ...back at the alley, Slats grabbed for his rosco... the intelligence apparatus, even after the recent resignation of the NDS chief, remains deeply suspicious of and hostile towards both the Taliban and Pakistain. For Pakistain, the unfolding events in Helmand should be yet another reason to continue pursuing the twin approach of keeping the lines of communication with Kabul open while nudging the Taliban to the negotiating table. If Pakistain does both on a sustained basis, it may help address many of the suspicions of true state policy. The twin approach is also the right and sensible thing to do. Posted by: Fred 2015-12-22 |
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