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Crucial Swing Voters in 2004: Security Moms favor Bush by 2-to-1 margin
Ignore the stupidity of the notion that "women" are part of the "Democratic base" (are "men" part of the "Republican base"?) and read about why Bush will win this election easily: Security moms have displaced soccer moms as the crucial swing voters. Traditionally, there is a gap between married women and single women, with married women voting more Republican and single women voting more Democratic. This year, Ms. Lake said, the gap between how married and single women expect to vote is greater than it has ever been, largely because of the emergence of what analysts call "security moms,'' who tend to be white, married women who have children and who are fearful of another attack within the United States. "Security moms'' are an outgrowth of the "soccer moms'' who had emerged in previous elections as important swing voters. But soccer moms tended to live mainly in the suburbs and could vote either way. Security moms live everywhere and are leaning Republican. In the Times/CBS News poll, married women who are registered to vote were far more likely to say they would vote for Mr. Bush (59 percent) than for Mr. Kerry (32 percent). It would be very interesting to see the voting preferences of married with childrens vs no children and unmarrieds. I'd bet the married with kids break 60-30 for Bush and the childless go 60-30 for Kerry. Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press, said that women over all were "cross-pressured'' this year because they had more confidence in Mr. Bush on terrorism but were skeptical that he would handle the economy better. "There's a tension among middle-class women who are attracted by Bush's perceived strength on terrorism and concerns about his poor performance on the domestic agenda,'' Mr. Kohut said. "They will be the story of this election: the way women make this choice.'' Mr. Kohut said that in 2000, men voted for Mr. Bush at the same rate that women voted for Mr. Gore. "Now,'' he said, "Bush has more solid strength among men than Kerry has among women, and if Kerry can't match that margin among women, he will lose.'' Posted by: lex 2004-09-22 |
| http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=43967 |