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Another Dem Pundit throws in Kerry towel, pines for Dean
Democratic [primary] voters guessed wrong: Dean would be doing better against Bush than Kerry is. Yes, it's too late for Democrats to switch horses, but imagining how Dean might have done sheds light on what's going on now. Here's the logic: If Dean were the nominee, flip-flops wouldn't be the issue; Iraq would. The former Vermont Governor opposed the war from the start, and his rationale was as simple as Kerry's was convoluted: Saddam was not a threat. Not necessarily a good argument but without question the strongest card the opposition has. Of course, Dean would have had other general-election vulnerabilities. Republicans would have branded him the second coming of McGovern. But Dean could have retorted that he (unlike Kerry) backed the first Gulf War. They would have ridiculed his lack of foreign policy experience. But there's an advantage to not having 20 years of Senate votes to defend, as Kerry has learned. (That's part of the reason Governors usually make stronger presidential candidates than Senators.) Excellent point. But the Dems have no bench strength among the governors beyond Granholm of Michigan, and she's a Canuck. ...Dean's lack of a war record might have actually helped him. For the Kerry campaign, Vietnam has been a crutch, an all-purpose response to any foreign policy attack. Partly as a result, Kerry's team didn't use the Democratic....Dean, because he couldn't talk about Vietnam, might have focused on other things — like Bush's failure to get tough with the Saudis or fund homeland security — that Americans care more about than whether Lieutenant Kerry deserved his Bronze Star. Dean would have one more, less tangible advantage: he doesn't sound like a politician. Say that again. Recalls Steyn: "Dean's a centrist pretending to be a nut. Kerry's a nut pretending to be a centrist." One reason the flip-flop charge has stuck is that Kerry, with his meandering, caveat-filled speaking style, often seems like a guy trying to avoid a straight answer. Kerry's biggest deficit versus Bush in the TIME poll is in "sticking to his positions." Only 37% of registered voters in the survey said Kerry does that, compared with 84% for Bush. Dean wouldn't have that problem. Polls in Iowa showed him doing best among voters who value a candidate who "takes strong stands." It's true that Dean's passion exploded the night he lost Iowa — into a scream heard around the world. But it was the flip side of the spontaneity that made him seem authentic, a straight shooter. With his blunt, no-nonsense style, Dean actually evoked — more than any of his Democratic rivals — President Bush. Expect the Dems to go isolationist, in a hard left nutso way, the next time around. Senator Obama won't do any better than Sens. Kerry, Graham, Lieberman, Gore, Biden, Hart, Bayh, Kennedy... Posted by: lex 2004-09-27 |
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