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End of Islamic State Could Be Start of Larger Anti-Terror Fight
[Iraq Sun] Slow, steady progress by U.S. and coalition backed forces against the Islamic State
...formerly ISIS or ISIL, depending on your preference. Before that al-Qaeda in Iraq, as shaped by Abu Musab Zarqawi. They're very devout, committing every atrocity they can find in the Koran and inventing a few more. They fling Allah around with every other sentence, but to hear the pols talk they're not really Moslems....
terror group in Iraq and Syria could mean little in the wider war against jihadist organizations bent on striking at the West.

This grim outlook, according to military and intelligence officials, stems from several factors, from poor governance and pervasive instability to the alienation of certain segments of populations. Combined, they say, these factors have undone long-standing cultural bonds and allegiances, turning parts of the Middle East and Africa into terrorist incubators.

"More and more individuals, because of their feeling of being disenfranchised from their governments, are now identifying with subnational groups, whether it be with an ISIS, a Nusra, a Boko Haram
... not to be confused with Procol Harum, Harum Scarum, possibly to be confused with Helter Skelter. The Nigerian version of al-Qaeda and the Taliban rolled together and flavored with a smigeon of distinctly Subsaharan ignorance and brutality...
or others," CIA Director John Brennan warned politicians last week. "They're not identifying themselves as Somalis, Nigerians or Yemenis."

Complicating matters further is the feeling that military power alone, no matter how overwhelming, is not enough to deliver a decisive blow against IS or any other deep-rooted terror organization.

"It's not as though we're looking at a happy ending in Iraq and Syria," said Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "Defeating ISIS does not defeat jihadism."

"Momentum is in favor of the global jihadist movement," he said.

In some ways, the rapid ascension of IS and its bid to become the preeminent global jihadist organization have actually strengthened its competitors, most notably, al-Qaeda.

"Al-Qaeda has prioritized [Jabhat al] Nusra as an affiliate," a U.S. intelligence official told VOA on condition of anonymity. The official noted that the group has used the last two years to "retrench and rebrand," emerging with greater strength on the battlefield in Syria and with more credibility, as well.

Intelligence officials estimate Jabhat al-Nusra
...formally Jabhat an-Nusrah li-Ahli sh-Sham (Support Front for the People of the Levant), also known as al-Qaeda in the Levant. They aim to establish a pan-Arab caliphate. Not the same one as the Islamic State, though .. ...
currently has several thousand fighters at its disposal, rating the group's capabilities as "formidable."

And even though Jabhat al-Nusra's parent organization has suffered setbacks in Afghanistan, a one-time safe haven, analysts like Daveed Gartenstein-Ross warn it is a mistake to underestimate al-Qaeda's resources or reach.

"People overstate the way al-Qaeda is kind of a virtual entity - it's not. They control territory, and people aren't complaining about it," Gartenstein-Ross said. "They've embedded with local populations in Yemen
...an area of the Arabian Peninsula sometimes mistaken for a country. It is populated by more antagonistic tribes and factions than you can keep track of. Except for a tiny handfull of Jews everthing there is very Islamic...
and in Syria and Libya and in Mali."

Thanks to its rebranding efforts, al-Qaeda's appeal even seems to be expanding.

"Al-Qaeda has managed to capture the echelon of Salafi jihadis who were repulsed by ISIS' brutality but still have the ideology and want something that is just a half-step down," said Jessica McFate, a former U.S. Army intelligence officer now with the Institute for the Study of War.


Posted by: Fred 2016-06-23
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=460150