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Iran Probing for U.S. Weaknesses with Gulf Encounters
Anyone concerned by a perceived warming of relations between the U.S. and Iran can rest somewhat assured as of this week: The two countries' interactions, particularly on the high seas, most definitely remain hostile.Recent days have witnessed repeated incidents in which boats belonging to the navy of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps harassed and – according to the U.S. Navy – acted outright dangerously in close proximity to American ships in the Persian Gulf. It remains unclear specifically what Iran hoped to achieve with the encounters. But regardless of what prompted the provocations, the outcome the Iranians sought was all but certain. "They knew they were going to provoke a response, they just went as far as they could," says Anthony Cordesman, with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "The clear message is, 'We're here. We are a significant threat. We can demonstrate to everyone in the Gulf that we are capable of doing this and willing to do it.'" Iran could be airing continued grievances or sending a larger message to its adversaries on any one of a series of issues. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, for example, believes the U.S. has not followed through on commitments to the deal it struck with Tehran over its nuclear program. The U.S. continues a military build-up of sorts through massive arms deals with its traditional partners in the Middle East, which also happen to be Iran's sworn enemies. Tehran also might feel empowered by its strengthened relationship with Moscow, as shown through Russia's temporarily deploying warplanes to an airbase in Iran for operations in Syria. The U.N. General Assembly begins in New York a few weeks, where Iran will likely continue its traditional arguments for greater influence in world affairs. And, more generally, Iran is expected to continue its years-long campaign to prove it can, and should, serve as the principal power in its neighborhood. Whatever the reason behind this latest activity, it arguably achieved its goal. "You do not necessarily need to turn this into a publicity issue because you don't have to. Is there any place that didn't get the news?" Cordesman says. Posted by: Pappy 2016-08-28 |
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