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2004 Election Explained: Red state population increasing, Blue states declining
Don't have all the data, but these two maps, plus one killer data point, showing the county-by-county results from 2000 and 2004 most likely tells the story. In short, the red-blue split, by county, was almost exactly identical in 2004 to 2000 (with the notable exception of a few Florida Gulf Coast counties). In other words, the map remains the same as in 2000. However, note one telling statistic above the 2000 map: "GROWTH IN 1990-1999 OF COUNTIES WON: Gore = 5%, Bush = 14%." Assuming that this trend continued in 200-2004, simply straightlining it over these four years yields growth in blue counties of ~2.2% and growth in red counties of ~6.2% for a net gain in votes of 4% by the red states, especially those in the southwest and Colorado. Assuming that turnout by Dems increased at roughly the same rate as turnout by Republicans, this would largely explain Bush's shift from being down 500,000 popular votes to winning by 3,500,000 popular votes. Implication: the sunbelt rules, especially the high growth states like Florida, Colorado, and the other southwestern states. A party that, aside from the left coast, is competitive only in the declining rustbelt and northeast is a losing party. Posted by: lex 2004-11-09 |
| http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=48279 |