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Iraq Cleric Pushing Shiites to Vote
Shiite leader Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani has launched a massive get-out-the-vote campaign for Iraq's upcoming elections, determined to ensure that Shiites have a chance to win the power that he believes rightfully belongs to the nation's majority Muslim sect.Iraq's Election Commission announced Sunday that the poll to elect a transitional parliament will be held Jan. 30, although speculation has deepened that the vote will be postponed. Al-Sistani is acutely aware that this is a critical juncture for Iraq's Shiites, analysts say. "Sistani thinks that this is the Shiites' moment to reverse the last 80 years of being out of power -- some would say the last 1,400 years," said a senior Iraqi government official, who asked not to be identified. Since the beginning of the U.S.-led occupation, al-Sistani has been a staunch proponent of early, direct elections, trying to straddle roles as an Iraqi nationalist leader and a promoter of Shiite political interests. He has met with Kurds -- most of whom are Sunnis -- and Christians as well as secular and religious Shiites. From homey neighborhood mosques to the sprawling shrines that are the center of Shiite religious life, the vast Shiite hierarchy with ties to al-Sistani is hard at work. The mosques' leaders are following the "fatwa," or religious ruling, issued by al-Sistani in mid-October requiring every man and woman to vote. The spiritual leader elevated the duty to vote to the same level as fasting during Ramadan and praying five times a day -- among the most sacred obligations for religious Muslims. "Without a fatwa from (al-)Sistani, it's difficult for people to participate in this election because of the threats and apathy about the future. But if we have a religious edict, that definitely has an important impact," said Jaber Habib, a professor of political science at Baghdad University. "With such a fatwa issued, I can't imagine anyone (Shiite) not voting." Al-Sistani, a cleric who claims to have no involvement in politics, is arguably the most important figure on the Iraqi political stage. And he may be the key to whether the elections are held on time. The debate over the elections' timing will pit al-Sistani and the millions who follow him against those in the current government who remain willing to consider a delay. If he decides -- as is likely -- that he cannot support a delay, Iraqi politicians will be hard put to endorse one. If they push for a delay over his objections, they will have to be prepared for civil disobedience on a mass scale. "He either is going to be unable to stop street protests or he will encourage them," said Joost Hiltermann, director of the International Crisis Group's Amman office, which handles research on Iraq. Hiltermann noted that when al-Sistani was distressed last winter at the U.S. proposal to have caucuses select the interim National Assembly, he allowed his lieutenants to call hundreds of thousands into the streets. Iraqi and U.S. officials who will decide whether to delay elections must consider security conditions in key regions of Iraq. In Fallujah, it is difficult to imagine how to prepare for elections when few people now live there and much of the city was leveled after the intense U.S. assault last week. Although some U.S. military and election officials claim that people who are registered through their food-ration cards will be able to vote elsewhere, many Fallujah residents are staying in Sunni neighborhoods where there is widespread opposition to voting. More troubling are cities such as Mosul, with 1 million people, the majority of them Sunnis. There, intimidation is expected to prove a serious problem, with many people choosing not to vote rather than risk violence to themselves and their families. It is widely agreed that an election without significant Sunni participation would lack legitimacy, because the parliament that will be elected will write the constitution that could govern Iraq for years. But it is unclear whether a three- to four-month delay will make a significant difference in the level of Sunni participation, and it would hand the insurgents a victory by allowing them to derail the political process. Al-Sistani appears to have similar concerns, people familiar with his thinking said. "Sistani has been very clear ... he believes the delay in holding elections until now has contributed to the rise in violence; we think if elections were held last year perhaps we would be living in a safer environment today," said Hussain al-Shahristani, a nuclear scientist who fled Iraq during Saddam Hussein's reign. With al-Sistani's backing, Shahristani is organizing a political alliance that includes a large number of independents. The only way to stem the violence, al-Sistani says, is "through having an elected National Assembly that can negotiate a timetable for the multinational forces to end the occupation," Shahristani said. With the goal of preparing Iraqis for a January election, al-Sistani has ordered committees in every region to coordinate election preparations. But his word is followed most closely in Shiite areas. In the Khadimia neighborhood of Baghdad, fliers urging people to vote cover the walls. "The ballot box is the only guarantee of the rights of all Iraqis. Let us make every drop of Tigris water the property of 25 million Iraqis. Let us make each date palm the property of 25 million Iraqis. Let the future of 25 million be decided in balloting," one ubiquitous notice reads. Another was more straightforward. "No to dictatorship; no to foreign occupation; the credible election is the only way for Iraqis to move their country in a just direction." On Sunday, loudspeakers blasted election messages: "Do you know what you are voting for? Are you voting for a president? Are you voting for a prime minister? What are you voting for?" (Iraqis will vote for neither a president nor a prime minister; they will vote for a National Assembly, which in turn will select a prime minister and president.) At Bratha mosque, a large Shiite mosque with ties to al-Sistani, the preacher, Jalaluddin Saghir, is an ardent proponent of elections. Two weeks ago he started making the subject a central topic of his Friday sermon. But, like al-Sistani, he wants to be sure his own people -- Iraqi Shiites -- know that their vote will count. "Some people say that the Shiite are not united; don't believe that, because the Shiite political forces are united," he said, underscoring that if Shiites back a slate of Shiite candidates they will be assured of a strong voice in the next Iraqi government. In the back streets of Khadimiya, election fever was building. "Now there is less work being done because people are sitting around talking about elections, in houses, in their shops," said Rassan Manhal Feisel, 23, a Shiite employed in a jewelry workshop. "People want to vote. My family is deciding whatever the consequences they will vote -- nothing will dissuade us." Posted by: tipper 2004-11-22 |
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