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Our Afghanistan policy
 [DAWN] THE National Assembly, the government and the COAS have categorically rejected President Trump’s allegations against Pakistain. The furious outrage of the political and military elite in Pakistain brings to mind Hamlet’s mother who said "the lady doth protest too much, methinks" which questions the credibility of overreactions. The reaction in Pakistain obscures the fact that none of Trump’s charges against Pakistain are new and none of Pakistain’s denials are entirely convincing ‐ even among Paks. The first sensible reaction has been from Pakistain’s much maligned diplomatic envoys who reportedly "urged the government to avoid any knee-jerk reactions and prefer diplomacy to confrontation".It is true the US has not provided evidence of alleged Pak assistance to the Taliban ...Arabic for students... insurgency in Afghanistan. The border is porous, people flow back and forth, and complete border control is impossible. Building border fences unilaterally will exacerbate rather than alleviate tensions. Moreover, there are legitimate Pak contacts with "the political wings" of the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network  apparently to urge them to come to the negotiating table for a peace settlement with Kabul. However,if you can't say something nice about a person some juicy gossip will go well... this is a scenario in which games can be played ‐ and are played. Pakistain’s reaction does not take into account that a frustrated Trump, whose presidency hangs in the balance, may be looking for a "splendid little war" to divert domestic attention from his dismal and embarrassing performance at home and whip up support for ’the chief slaying monsters abroad.’ North Korea is not on the menu because China would intervene in any American assault. It is less clear what China’s reaction would be to another Abbottabad ... A pleasant city located only 30 convenient miles from Islamabad. The city is noted for its nice weather and good schools. It is the site of Pakistain's military academy, which was within comfortable walking distance of the residence of the late Osama bin Laden.... -like assault on targets in Pakistain beyond robust denunciation. Trump’s generals in Washington and Afghanistan approved his warnings to Pakistain and his authorising them to take any action they think appropriate without seeking his further approval. These are likely to be drone attacks and ’black ops’ by special forces who do not require access to air or ground routes in Pakistain. The generals saw the reaction of Pakistain to the raid on Abbottabad in May 2011 and are not likely to be deterred from similar or escalated action again. Given the professional advice of Pakistain’s diplomats, it is not clear what the foreign minister meant by a "paradigm shift" in foreign policy. The BRICS statement referred to four bad boy organizations located in Pakistain as threats to regional security. They are on the UN terrorist list and are banned but active in Pakistain. Given Trump’s statement, the China-India disengagement from Doklam, and the Xi-Modi meeting on the sidelines of the Xiamen summit there is a worrying query: is China gently but publicly pressing Pakistain to take down organizations on its territory who have links with snuffies on Chinese territory? If Pakistain is silly enough to ignore this message it will progressively upset China and sow doubts in Chinese minds about their strategic partnership with Pakistain. This would inevitably impact CPEC. If this happens Pakistain will have kicked itself in the face again! Posted by: Fred 2017-09-09 |
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