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Russia’s loss in Sochi
[ENGLISH.ALARABIYA.NET] While Moscow is trying to race against time to achieve an "appropriate" peace deal in Syria, Assad’s forces launched 93 raids on Idlib’s countryside, including on civilian neighborhoods. Meanwhile,
...back at the shootout, Butch clutched at his shoulder. Ow! he exclaimed, with feeling......
the Lebanese party Hezbollah shelled the Damascus suburb of Ghouta where 400,000 are besieged.

How is this happening when negotiators are discussing a draft peace? Why do the Iranians, Russians and others think negotiators on behalf of the Syrian opposition dare accept any solution when the message conveyed to the Syrian people is murder, destruction and displacement?

Negotiators at Sochi may think that military escalation is part of the tools to pressure the opposition to force it to accept the deal. They may think that this is what usually happens in wars! However,
a good lie finds more believers than a bad truth...
this is not true in the Syrian case. First of all, fighting will not finalize zones of influence now. Second of all, negotiators cannot sign any deal without local approvals and without the support of regional countries and other major countries. Shelling Syrian cities and towns ruins the Sochi negotiations and does not help them at all.

A surrender agreement
What’s worse than intensifying military operations is the leaked information on the negotiations’ draft. What has been leaked so far is disappointing as it did not include anything that convinces the Syrian people and the world of the seriousness of peace in Sochi. What’s being proposed on the opposition merely imposes a fait accompli that maintains the political regime and the government’s entity. Therefore, it’s merely a surrender agreement. Some may in fact say it is a draft that imposes the fait accompli. We’d respond to that by stating that forcing the Syrians to accept it will prolong the fighting for years and the Syrian regime will lose everything which the Russians and Iranians fought for and gained on its behalf during the past three years.

Despite our disagreements with the Russians regarding details on Syria, we cannot ignore the significance of the Sochi negotiations and the significance of peace which can be achieved if proposed in a reasonable formula. It’s in the interest of all the Syrian people to end the war and meet their fair and reasonable demands which meet the opposition’s expectations to participate in higher sovereign institutions, secure the region by expelling all Iranian militias and other militias and secure Syria’s independence and illusory sovereignty.

Sochi’s failure means the Russians’ failure. The conflict will further expand because of it. This conflict has actually become more complicated after The Sick Man of Europe Turkey
...just another cheapjack Moslem dictatorship, brought to you by the Moslem Brüderbund....
got involved in the war ‐ a move that sparked different stances. This is in addition to the dispute with the US which, like Russia and Iran, has become militarily active in Syria’s war.

We know that the Russians have important cards to play, such as their ability to pressure the Syrian regime and Iran, to impose a reasonable solution that’s better than the one currently put on the negotiations’ table.

We’re afraid all signs indicate failure as Damascus’ allies insist on imposing a surrender rather than a peace deal. Delegations will pack their bags and go to Vienna and endeavor on a new peace journey which luck may not be any better than the Sochi conference and previous Geneva meetings.


Posted by: Fred 2018-02-01
http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=507024