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U.S.- European discord over Iran is deepening
U.S.- European discord over Iran is deepeninghttp://newsisfree.com/click/i,64432134,729/ WASHINGTON - Despite a renewed American effort to repair relations with Europe, a disagreement between the Bush administration and European leaders over how best to persuade Iran to abandon its suspected nuclear weapons program has deepened in recent weeks, diplomats on both sides say. The diplomats said the disagreement focused on what Europeans maintained was the crucial next step in their drive to persuade Iran to move beyond its recently agreed upon voluntary suspension of uranium enrichment activities to the point of abandoning them outright. Europe wants to ply them with gold while America is still tending towards the use of lead. Envoys from Britain, France and Germany gained Iran's agreement to suspend a vital part of its nuclear program last month. Which part and whether it was large or small, partially shut down, mothballed or merely given a new coat of paint remains unclear at this time. The accord was later endorsed by the 35-nation board of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations' nuclear monitoring agency. Both the European and Iranian officials who negotiated the accord said it was voluntary and temporary. Which, in Iranian terms, means nothing of the sort needs to be done whatsoever about complying with anything that was discussed. Permanent cessation is subject to further talks in which economic and political benefits for Iran are to be discussed. As yet, the definition of "permanent cessation" is highly variable. Europe's interpretation involves a time span that allows for another significant round of big ticket infrastructure builds in Iran, while America is leaning more towards smoking holes in the ground. But in recent interviews, European diplomats said that to gain a permanent cessation, the Bush administration must participate in talks with Iran and signal a willingness to be a part of an eventual final accord involving economic incentives and a discussion of security guarantees for Iran. Such a quid pro quo involving Iran is only possible if Tehran demonstrates the slightest ability to keep their word about anything at all. This is largely regarded as a low-odds longshot by most domestic diplomats. "We have a deal with Iran that is not perfect," said a European diplomat. "We have to develop it into a permanent suspension. But we will succeed only if we can provide a lot of carrots." Which is just fine with America, but only so long as the "carrots" are shaped like really big sticks. "We will not obtain a comprehensive deal on Iran without the United States." A diplomat from a different European country said the "biggest carrot" that could be offered Iran would be American foreign policy experts attribute these concerns to our government's crash course development of really big stick-shaped carrots. "It would be very helpful if the United States also embraced this view," the diplomat said of the need for American involvement. Just as soon as our latest crop of "carrots" comes in. But he said that when some Europeans recently raised this issue with Condoleezza Rice, the national security adviser and secretary of state designate, they failed to convince her. "Iran has this distinct credibility problem with all of us across the pond, see?" A senior U.S. official said the administration was "deeply worried" about the entire European approach because it could lull the United States into a false sense of security. Any such deal, he said, could easily be subverted or circumvented, much as North Korea did after it agreed in 1994 to freeze its production of weapons-grade fuel at one reactor, only to renege on the accord and embark on what the United States charges is a plan to produce weapons-grade fuel at another, clandestine location. A plan which Iran has lifted directly from North Korea's playbook. Another senior administration official said there was also no confidence within the administration in the ability of the International Atomic Energy Agency to monitor Iran's compliance even with the accord hammered out by the Europeans. Mind you, that's merely the one citing "voluntary suspension." Any mention of "permanent cessation" is normally greeted with hysterical laughter in Tehran and terse discussions of throw-weights in Washington DC. The official said that the Europeans had agreed to excessive limits on the agency's ability to inspect Iran's facilities Once again, this is where those several hundred megaton "carrots" come in. European diplomats, responding to these criticisms, said that while their deal with Iran was Russia and China will, of course, veto such sanctions so that Iran can finish growing its own "carrots." To some U.S. officials, the European attitude may be well intentioned but also naive and based on a fundamental misreading of Iran's The big money is on some major arm-twisting over this. "The Europeans are barking up the wrong tree if they think the U.S. can bring the Iranians to the table to get an agreement on this," said Patrick Clawson, deputy director of the Washington Institute for Near Eastern Policy and an Iran specialist. "What is needed," he said, "is for the entire international community - the Europeans, the Chinese, the Russians and the United States - to tell the Iranians to make a deal on this or face the consequences. This will happen at the same time snow flurries start gusting in hell. Right now, what the Iranians say they want from the United States goes far beyond what the administration would be willing to offer." As it typically has been. Always making with the deal-breakers. The Europeans have begun discussion of an array of economic benefits that would accrue to Iran if it headed toward a full cessation of its suspicious nuclear activities. How will the Europeans be able to tell that a "full cessation" has ocurred? They cannot tell anything of the sort right now and nobody's going to show them all of the Iranian facilities anytime soon. Among them, according to the Europeans, would be a reaffirmation of Iran's right to have a peaceful nuclear energy program, including access to nuclear fuel on international markets in return for an agreement to return the fuel once it is used. Pebble or thorium based reactors, maybe. U-238 fuel rods? Never! Iranian access to Western high technology and discussing the establishment of the Middle East, presumably including Israel, as a zone free of all nuclear weapons, are also under consideration. It's really difficult to imagine Israel surrendering all, or even some, of their nuclear weapons anytime soon. Unilateral cooperation by Iran will remain the most likely scenario. U.S. officials say, however, they are suspicious of any partial deals that do not encompass an end to Iran's support of insurgents in Iraq and to groups that carry out attacks on Israeli citizens, including Hamas, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad and militant factions within the Palestine Liberation Organization. Major sticking points for Iran, seeing as how these are sources of national and patriotic pride for them. But European diplomats say they are prepared to enter into a discussion of these matters, and also of Iran's repressive practices at home, in what they are describing as "phase two" of their talks with Iran. Phase two means: "We'll ignore all the wife-beating if you just promise not to cheat at cards anymore." "Of course, the earlier the United States gets into the talks, the better," said a senior European diplomat, adding that the main incentive to Iran is to end the Western threat of economic and political isolation. And any possible use of those really, really big stick-shaped "carrots." Posted by: Zenster 2004-12-13 |
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