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Here’s how Venezuela’s Maduro will try to stay in power
[Miami Herald] When the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently estimated that Venezuela’s inflation will reach 1 million percent this year, many analysts jumped to the conclusion that President Nicolás Maduro’s days in power are numbered.But the experience of Zimbabwe, which went through a similar hyperinflation in 2008, shows that the Venezuelan dictator may remain in power for several years by dollarizing the economy, and incorporating some opposition leaders into his regime. I see three scenarios for Venezuela in light of the latest forecast by the IMF. In addition to estimating a 1 million percent hyperinflation this year — which it compared with that of Germany in 1923 and that of Zimbabwe in 2008 — the IMF calculates that Venezuela’s economy will contract by a whopping 18 percent this year, for a record 50 percent decline over the past five years. Maduro announced on July 25 that he will cut five zeroes from Venezuela’s currency to help bring down inflation. But no serious economist thinks that such measure will work absent drastic market reforms. And Maduro may do just that — try capitalist recipes. The Zimbabwe scenario, The Cuban Scenario & The Brazilian and Argentine scenarios.
Posted by: 3dc 2018-07-31 |
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| http://www.rantburg.com/poparticle.php?ID=519687 |